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After a meaningful decline, did price regain its observed peak, and how long did that take? · By CoinNudge Research · Method reviewed 2026-09-13 · Guide updated 2026-09-13 · Historical study updated · Observation range: – · Calculation historical-evidence-1.2 · Auto-refresh about every 21600 seconds

Crypto drawdown recovery across a 90-day Binance window

Current answer: As of , using CoinNudge local archive; source and scope stated in each row: Kaplan–Meier estimates retain unrecovered episodes as right-censored observations. Log-log 95% confidence intervals use Greenwood variance. Depth buckets use each episode’s deepest close drawdown; the downloadable ledger preserves threshold, trough, recovery and censor times.

Historical study updated

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Current source-backed snapshot

This study records close-based drawdowns that reach at least 5% below a preceding observed peak in a 90-day Binance Spot window. The summary uses Kaplan–Meier recovery estimates so unrecovered episodes remain right-censored instead of disappearing. It reports recovery probability by 7, 30 and 60 days for all episodes and 5–10%, 10–20% and >20% depth groups. The downloadable ledger preserves threshold crossing, trough, recovery and censor times. Peaks are local to the available window, not lifetime highs.

Input documentation: Binance Spot candle field documentation · CoinNudge methodology

Observation window: Requested windows and actual coverage are recorded separately

Calculation cadence: Auto-refresh about every 21600 seconds

Calculation version: historical-evidence-1.2

Download current dataset: JSON · CSV Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.

Crypto drawdown recovery across a 90-day Binance window — CoinNudge live research
Crypto drawdown recovery across a 90-day Binance window: a current source-backed visual summarizing Actual observation range, Coverage and missingness, Versioned calculation.
Drawdown depthSample statusEpisodesRecoveredRight-censoredGap-terminatedKM median daysRecovered by 7d %7d Greenwood low7d Greenwood highRecovered by 30d %30d Greenwood low30d Greenwood highRecovered by 60d %60d Greenwood low60d Greenwood high
All qualifying drawdownsdescriptive54411302420.567411.953334.064358.260244.040273.151470.185955.476183.6347
5–10%descriptive201640945.000026.511368.660089.523864.741899.2422100100100
10–20%descriptive2115602310.00002.599034.396951.785730.523576.807475.892951.861193.7242
>20%exploratory1310307200026.66679.438362.103926.66679.438362.1039

Actual candle coverage

Requested history is not guaranteed coverage. Missing bars remain counted.

MarketFirst UTCLast UTCAvailable barsExpected barsMissing bars
BTCUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
ETHUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
ZECUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
LSKUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
SOLUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
THEUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
XRPUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
BNBUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
牛来USDT2026-09-09 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC49187
HOLOUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
REZUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
NEARUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
SUIUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
UNIUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
VTHOUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
PUMPUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
DOGEUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
MARSCOINUSDT2026-09-04 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC99182
STEEMUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910
TRXUSDT2026-06-14 00:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC91910

Observation evidence

First 30 of 54 observations. JSON and CSV contain all published evidence. CSV dataset_section distinguishes summary and observation rows.

symbolpeak_timepeak_pricethreshold_cross_timethreshold_cross_pricetrough_timetrough_pricetrough_pctrecovery_timerecovery_dayscensor_timeduration_daysstatussourcecalculation_version
BTCUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC66328.74002026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC62958.01002026-06-30 00:00:00 UTC58624.7100-11.61492026-07-21 00:00:00 UTC36—36recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
BTCUSDT2026-07-21 00:00:00 UTC66556.16002026-07-31 00:00:00 UTC62887.88002026-08-01 00:00:00 UTC62823.6400-5.60812026-08-19 00:00:00 UTC29—29recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
BTCUSDT2026-09-03 00:00:00 UTC81270.37002026-09-10 00:00:00 UTC76568.72002026-09-10 00:00:00 UTC76568.7200-5.7852——2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC10unrecoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
ETHUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC1796.13002026-06-23 00:00:00 UTC1667.13002026-06-25 00:00:00 UTC1567.8400-12.71012026-07-06 00:00:00 UTC21—21recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
ETHUSDT2026-07-26 00:00:00 UTC1954.72002026-08-01 00:00:00 UTC1844.94002026-08-01 00:00:00 UTC1844.9400-5.61612026-08-19 00:00:00 UTC24—24recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
ZECUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC518.68002026-06-17 00:00:00 UTC477.23002026-06-28 00:00:00 UTC376.4100-27.42922026-07-12 00:00:00 UTC27—27recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
ZECUSDT2026-07-12 00:00:00 UTC533.53002026-07-13 00:00:00 UTC495.57002026-07-13 00:00:00 UTC495.5700-7.11492026-07-14 00:00:00 UTC2—2recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
ZECUSDT2026-07-15 00:00:00 UTC570.54002026-07-16 00:00:00 UTC523.72002026-07-31 00:00:00 UTC457.7000-19.77782026-08-21 00:00:00 UTC37—37recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
ZECUSDT2026-08-23 00:00:00 UTC853.98002026-08-25 00:00:00 UTC767.80002026-08-25 00:00:00 UTC767.8000-10.09162026-09-03 00:00:00 UTC11—11recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
ZECUSDT2026-09-06 00:00:00 UTC1227.60002026-09-07 00:00:00 UTC1140.16002026-09-07 00:00:00 UTC1140.1600-7.12282026-09-09 00:00:00 UTC3—3recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
ZECUSDT2026-09-09 00:00:00 UTC1244.28002026-09-10 00:00:00 UTC1079.96002026-09-10 00:00:00 UTC1079.9600-13.2060——2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC4unrecoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
LSKUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC0.09502026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC0.08902026-08-01 00:00:00 UTC0.0711-25.15792026-08-26 00:00:00 UTC72—72recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
LSKUSDT2026-08-26 00:00:00 UTC0.10592026-08-27 00:00:00 UTC0.09682026-08-27 00:00:00 UTC0.0968-8.59302026-09-09 00:00:00 UTC14—14recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
SOLUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC73.98002026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC69.71002026-06-25 00:00:00 UTC67.7200-8.46172026-06-29 00:00:00 UTC14—14recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
SOLUSDT2026-07-03 00:00:00 UTC82.34002026-07-08 00:00:00 UTC77.83002026-08-01 00:00:00 UTC71.9500-12.61842026-08-19 00:00:00 UTC47—47recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
SOLUSDT2026-08-27 00:00:00 UTC109.14002026-08-30 00:00:00 UTC101.75002026-09-10 00:00:00 UTC98.6700-9.5932——2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC17unrecoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
THEUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC0.06992026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC0.06442026-07-01 00:00:00 UTC0.0474-32.18882026-08-21 00:00:00 UTC67—67recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
THEUSDT2026-08-26 00:00:00 UTC0.07302026-08-28 00:00:00 UTC0.06882026-08-30 00:00:00 UTC0.0668-8.49322026-09-05 00:00:00 UTC10—10recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
THEUSDT2026-09-05 00:00:00 UTC0.07672026-09-07 00:00:00 UTC0.07252026-09-11 00:00:00 UTC0.0641-16.4276——2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC8unrecoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
XRPUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC1.23822026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC1.14652026-08-16 00:00:00 UTC0.9936-19.75452026-08-20 00:00:00 UTC66—66recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
XRPUSDT2026-08-23 00:00:00 UTC1.52042026-08-25 00:00:00 UTC1.43432026-09-10 00:00:00 UTC1.3346-12.2205——2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC21unrecoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
BNBUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC617.87002026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC578.48002026-06-30 00:00:00 UTC546.5200-11.54772026-08-19 00:00:00 UTC65—65recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
BNBUSDT2026-09-05 00:00:00 UTC766.53002026-09-09 00:00:00 UTC722.64002026-09-10 00:00:00 UTC708.7200-7.5418——2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC8unrecoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
HOLOUSDT2026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC0.07162026-06-21 00:00:00 UTC0.06642026-06-23 00:00:00 UTC0.0634-11.45252026-07-03 00:00:00 UTC15—15recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
HOLOUSDT2026-07-04 00:00:00 UTC0.07272026-07-05 00:00:00 UTC0.06892026-07-08 00:00:00 UTC0.0672-7.56532026-07-10 00:00:00 UTC6—6recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
HOLOUSDT2026-07-12 00:00:00 UTC0.07412026-07-13 00:00:00 UTC0.06842026-07-19 00:00:00 UTC0.0622-16.05942026-07-29 00:00:00 UTC17—17recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
HOLOUSDT2026-07-29 00:00:00 UTC0.07732026-07-30 00:00:00 UTC0.06892026-07-31 00:00:00 UTC0.0646-16.42952026-08-11 00:00:00 UTC13—13recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
HOLOUSDT2026-08-11 00:00:00 UTC0.08182026-08-12 00:00:00 UTC0.07102026-08-17 00:00:00 UTC0.0539-34.1076——2026-09-13 00:00:00 UTC33unrecoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
REZUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC0.00332026-06-18 00:00:00 UTC0.00322026-07-18 00:00:00 UTC0.0023-30.25412026-09-12 00:00:00 UTC89—89recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2
NEARUSDT2026-06-15 00:00:00 UTC2.39402026-06-17 00:00:00 UTC2.18202026-08-18 00:00:00 UTC1.5880-33.66752026-09-06 00:00:00 UTC83—83recoveredBinance Spothistorical-evidence-1.2

Historical reconstruction is not proof of information available then or an executed return.

How to read this page

  • After a meaningful decline, did price regain its observed peak, and how long did that take?
  • Requested 90-day daily history of the current liquid Binance Spot selection; local observed peaks.
  • Read actual coverage and missing values before comparing outcomes.
  • Download the evidence; distinguish historical reconstruction from locally recorded events.

What can this page tell you quickly?

Best for
After a meaningful decline, did price regain its observed peak, and how long did that take?
Measured scope
Requested 90-day daily history of the current liquid Binance Spot selection; local observed peaks.
Update schedule
Recalculated every six hours; completed-window studies exclude the ongoing UTC day.
Do not infer
No guaranteed trading edge, complete point-in-time history or automatic entitlement to every data family.

Why must unrecovered drawdowns stay in the ledger?

Removing open episodes would answer how quickly successful recoveries finished, not how drawdowns generally behaved. An unrecovered episode may eventually take much longer or never recover within a relevant investment horizon. Its null recovery time is information, not an error to replace with zero.

This is right-censoring: the outcome has not been observed before the study ends. Comparing only completed episodes systematically favors faster recoveries. The page therefore publishes episode states rather than claiming an unbiased average recovery time.

Verify: Binance Spot candle field documentation

Is this the same as distance from an all-time high?

No. The ATH page compares current price with a historical extreme. This page tracks individual drawdown-and-recovery episodes inside a bounded sequence, with dates and elapsed days. One asset can experience several qualifying episodes without approaching its lifetime high.

Daily closes also differ from intraday peaks and troughs. The deepest published drawdown can be smaller than the worst intraday experience. These are close-based episodes and should not be presented as maximum executable loss.

How should I use the dates and missing-state fields?

Inspect peak date, trough depth and state together. A recovered shallow episode is not comparable to an ongoing deep decline without conditioning on those differences. Keep gap-terminated episodes separate because the missing segment could conceal either recovery or further decline.

Use this ledger to design a more explicit survival or regime study, not to predict a recovery deadline. The start of the window excludes earlier peaks; no claim is made about how long a decline had already been underway before local observations began.

How can I audit and cite this measurement?

CheckWhat to verifyWhy it changes interpretation
ScopeRequested 90-day daily history of the current liquid Binance Spot selection; local observed peaks.Do not generalize a named sample to the whole crypto market.
FormulaTrack local close peaks, preserve threshold-cross and deepest-trough evidence, and close an episode only after a close regains the peak. Treat window-end episodes as right-censored, keep gaps separate, and use Kaplan–Meier estimates for 7/30/60-day recovery probability by depth bucket.A similarly named indicator can use a different convention.
Data timeObservation window versus materialization timeA fresh computation is not necessarily a fresh source observation.
DeliveryPublic evidence versus subscribed Market Events v1Inspect the data catalog before assuming commercial inclusion.

What is measured, and what is not?

Measured claimEvidence on this pageBoundary
After a meaningful decline, did price regain its observed peak, and how long did that take?The current table and downloadable rows using drawdown-recovery.Requested 90-day daily history of the current liquid Binance Spot selection; local observed peaks.
Results can be checked against an explicit computation.Track local close peaks, preserve threshold-cross and deepest-trough evidence, and close an episode only after a close regains the peak. Treat window-end episodes as right-censored, keep gaps separate, and use Kaplan–Meier estimates for 7/30/60-day recovery probability by depth bucket.Archive availability and revisions constrain historical reproducibility.

Method and data boundary

Track the running close peak through each consecutive daily segment. Open an episode when a close first reaches a 5% drawdown, preserve threshold and deepest-trough time/price, and close it when price regains the peak. The window end creates a right-censored duration; a missing day creates a separate gap termination. Estimate the recovery distribution with Kaplan–Meier product limits and report 7/30/60-day probabilities plus the first time survival reaches 50%. Stratify by deepest close drawdown without using a recovered-only median.

Requested 90-day daily history of the current liquid Binance Spot selection; local observed peaks. Historical results are descriptive, not executed profits or guaranteed future behavior.

Read the complete CoinNudge methodology

Sources and verification

Frequently asked questions

After a meaningful decline, did price regain its observed peak, and how long did that take?

This episode ledger records close-based drawdowns that reach at least 5% below a preceding observed peak in the requested 90-day research window. Each episode remains open until a daily close regains the peak, a data gap interrupts the sequence, or the observation window ends. Unrecovered episodes are retained instead of disappearing from a recovery statistic. Peaks are local to the available window and are not claimed to be lifetime all-time highs.

How often do the numbers change?

A bounded background calculation runs at most every six hours. Look at the actual observation interval as well as the calculation time; missing and pending data are not filled with zero.