What followed crypto upside breakouts across up to 90 days?

Current source-backed snapshot

This reconstructed study identifies an hourly close above the preceding 24-hour high and measures the next 24 complete hours. Event estimates are published only from 20 complete observations and include moving-block bootstrap intervals. Controls match symbol and UTC hour-of-week, then minimize prior volatility, local trend and BTC-regime distance; any control whose outcome overlaps an event window is excluded. Matching reduces known imbalance but does not establish causality or an audited alert-service win rate.

Input documentation: Binance Spot candle field documentation · CoinNudge methodology

Observation window: Requested windows and actual coverage are recorded separately

Calculation cadence: Auto-refresh about every 21600 seconds

Calculation version: historical-evidence-1.2

Download current dataset: JSON · CSV · Matching candidates (7843) Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.

Actual candle coverage

Requested history is not guaranteed coverage. Missing bars remain counted.

Observation evidence

First 30 of 252 observations. JSON and CSV contain all published evidence. CSV dataset_section distinguishes summary and observation rows.

Historical reconstruction is not proof of information available then or an executed return.

How to read this page

• After an hourly close exceeded the prior range, did price stay outside or return inside?
• BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP and DOGE; up to 90 days of reconstructed hourly history.
• Read actual coverage and missing values before comparing outcomes.
• Download the evidence; distinguish historical reconstruction from locally recorded events.

What can this page tell you quickly?

Best for

After an hourly close exceeded the prior range, did price stay outside or return inside?

Measured scope

BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP and DOGE; up to 90 days of reconstructed hourly history.

Update schedule

Recalculated every six hours; completed-window studies exclude the ongoing UTC day.

Do not infer

No guaranteed trading edge, complete point-in-time history or automatic entitlement to every data family.

Does a return inside the range mean the trade lost money?

Not necessarily. The failure definition concerns one structural condition: a later hourly close revisited or crossed the original breakout level. Price might subsequently rally, or a trader might exit before that close. No entry and exit execution is simulated here.

Likewise, a positive 24-hour reference return is not a winning strategy. Fees, spread, latency, position sizing and a specified exit rule would be needed before discussing executable profitability.

Verify: Binance Spot candle field documentation

How are repeated breakouts and controls handled?

The study spaces events at least 24 hours apart within each symbol and event group. A control must share the symbol and UTC hour-of-week, then is selected by distance across prior 24-hour volatility, local return and BTC 24-hour return. A control is rejected if its 24-hour outcome overlaps any event outcome window.

A selected control is still an observational comparison, not proof of a no-signal state or causal counterfactual. Pair IDs, matching inputs and match distance remain in the downloadable evidence so researchers can impose stricter gates.

What is a reliable way to read the outcome table?

First check complete, matched-control, pending and gap counts. Outcome percentages and medians are withheld below 20 complete events. Published medians include a moving-block bootstrap 95% interval, while event-minus-control estimates additionally require 20 valid pairs. Then compare return, adverse excursion and failure frequency together.

The current six-symbol basket excludes many smaller and delisted assets. Historical candles were reconstructed after the events and should not be cited as proof that CoinNudge detected those events in real time.

How can I audit and cite this measurement?

What is measured, and what is not?

Method and data boundary

On six fixed Binance USDT spot pairs, require a continuous trailing 26-bar sequence. An event closes above the highest high of the preceding 24 hourly bars; retain at most one event per symbol/group every 24 hours. Outcome uses the next 24 complete hourly bars. Statistics require 20 complete events. The 95% CI is a 1,000-resample circular moving-block bootstrap of the median with block size 3, published uint32 xorshift32 seeds and linear interpolation at (999 × q). Controls match symbol and UTC hour-of-week exactly, then minimize the published equally weighted normalized L1 distance over prior 24h return/5, prior volatility/2 and BTC prior return/5. Missing components cost 10; caliper is null; controls are selected without replacement in symbol/time order. Same-symbol event-window overlaps are excluded; ties use distance, absolute time gap, then earliest control time. The JSON links the complete candidate pool and a SHA-256 digest of its ordered observation IDs.

BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, XRP and DOGE; up to 90 days of reconstructed hourly history. Historical results are descriptive, not executed profits or guaranteed future behavior.

Read the complete CoinNudge methodology

Sources and verification

• Binance Spot candle field documentationField definitions; statistical selection and outcome formulas are CoinNudge's own disclosed methods.
• CoinNudge methodologyShared boundaries, data time semantics and calculation contracts.

Frequently asked questions