Altcoin returns on Bitcoin down days: 30-day Binance study

Current source-backed snapshot

This study conditions the comparison on Bitcoin's negative daily returns, rather than ranking coins over all market conditions. It reports each eligible altcoin's median return and median same-day excess return on those matched dates. A row requires 31 consecutive daily closes and at least five BTC-down days. Positive excess return means relative resilience, not necessarily an absolute gain. The universe is selected from currently liquid Binance Spot markets, so it cannot represent delisted or historically excluded assets.

Input documentation: Binance Spot candle field documentation · CoinNudge methodology

Observation window: Requested windows and actual coverage are recorded separately

Calculation cadence: Auto-refresh about every 21600 seconds

Calculation version: historical-evidence-1.2

Download current dataset: JSON · CSV Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.

Actual candle coverage

Requested history is not guaranteed coverage. Missing bars remain counted.

Observation evidence

First 30 of 221 observations. JSON and CSV contain all published evidence. CSV dataset_section distinguishes summary and observation rows.

Historical reconstruction is not proof of information available then or an executed return.

How to read this page

• Which tracked altcoins lost less, or gained, on the same days that Bitcoin fell?
• Current liquid Binance USDT spot selection, matched against BTC on a 30-day calendar.
• Read actual coverage and missing values before comparing outcomes.
• Download the evidence; distinguish historical reconstruction from locally recorded events.

What can this page tell you quickly?

Best for

Which tracked altcoins lost less, or gained, on the same days that Bitcoin fell?

Measured scope

Current liquid Binance USDT spot selection, matched against BTC on a 30-day calendar.

Update schedule

Recalculated every six hours; completed-window studies exclude the ongoing UTC day.

Do not infer

No guaranteed trading edge, complete point-in-time history or automatic entitlement to every data family.

Does outperforming Bitcoin mean that a coin made money?

No. An altcoin falling 2% while BTC falls 4% has a positive two-percentage-point excess return but still lost value. Read the median asset return beside the excess statistic to separate protection relative to BTC from an absolute positive result.

Likewise, outperforming on many days does not establish a better compounded outcome. A few large losses can dominate a sequence of small relative wins. This page describes conditional daily behavior, not a portfolio equity curve.

Verify: Binance Spot candle field documentation

Why not use ordinary correlation or beta instead?

Correlation and beta usually summarize both positive and negative benchmark days. A coin may track BTC closely on average yet behave differently specifically during declines. Conditioning on negative BTC days targets the user's downside question directly.

This selection also reduces the number of observations. A quiet month may offer few negative benchmark days, making the estimate unstable. The five-day minimum is a publication threshold for descriptive evidence, not a claim of statistical certainty.

How can this help shortlist further research?

Begin with qualified rows and compare both absolute loss and relative excess. Inspect whether the sample contains severe selloffs or only small down days, then compare current liquidity and the longer-window beta page before interpreting resilience as persistent.

The basket is based on today's surviving liquid markets. Missing or delisted historical constituents are not reconstructed. This survivorship boundary must accompany any use in a report and prevents treating the ranking as an investable historical universe.

How can I audit and cite this measurement?

What is measured, and what is not?

Method and data boundary

Select up to 20 current Binance USDT spot markets by descending quote turnover above the shared one-million-dollar liquidity floor, excluding classified non-crypto assets. Add BTC as benchmark. Require 31 consecutive daily closes in the fixed 30-day window. On dates where BTC close-to-close return is negative, compute asset return minus BTC return. Rank eligible rows by the median of paired excess returns; suppress results below five matched down days.

Current liquid Binance USDT spot selection, matched against BTC on a 30-day calendar. Historical results are descriptive, not executed profits or guaranteed future behavior.

Read the complete CoinNudge methodology

Sources and verification

• Binance Spot candle field documentationField definitions; statistical selection and outcome formulas are CoinNudge's own disclosed methods.
• CoinNudge methodologyShared boundaries, data time semantics and calculation contracts.

Frequently asked questions