Altcoin beta to Bitcoin across 30-day and 90-day windows

Current source-backed snapshot

This page estimates how strongly current liquid Binance Spot altcoins moved with Bitcoin across aligned completed daily returns. It shows 30-day and available 90-day beta, 30-day correlation, R-squared, relative volatility and separate upside/downside beta when enough variable BTC observations exist. High beta without meaningful R-squared is weak evidence, so fit remains visible and the ranking identifies a reliability threshold instead of presenting every coefficient as stable.

Input documentation: Binance Spot klines · CoinNudge methodology

Observation window: 30 and available 90 aligned completed daily returns

Calculation cadence: Auto-refresh about every 3600 seconds

Calculation version: daily-altcoin-beta-to-btc-1.2

Download current dataset: JSON · CSV Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.

Showing 40 of 47 calculated rows. “Reliable” means R² ≥ 0.30 for review; N-up or N-down below 10 is explicitly low-confidence.

Current source health

• research long candles: live; last success 2026-09-13 15:35:35 UTC
• binance: live; last success 2026-09-13 15:41:52 UTC

Beta is an ordinary least-squares sensitivity of aligned daily returns in the current liquid Binance universe. The 30-day 95% interval is a normal-theory OLS approximation and is not heteroskedasticity- or autocorrelation-robust. Beta is unstable in small samples, does not imply causality, ignores execution costs and can change sharply across regimes. R-squared is shown so a high beta with a weak fit is not presented as reliable.

How to read this page

• The chart shows raw 30-day beta only among rows with R² ≥ 0.30; beta is not multiplied by fit.
• Read reliable or weak-fit and the approximate OLS 95% interval beside every 30-day coefficient.
• Compare N-up and N-down before using directional beta; fewer than 10 observations is low confidence.
• Beta above one describes historical amplitude relative to BTC, not positive expected return.

What can this page tell you quickly?

Best for

Comparing historical BTC sensitivity before interpreting an altcoin signal.

Primary window

30 aligned completed daily returns; 90 days shown when at least 75 align.

Reliability context

R-squared of 0.30 is disclosed as a review threshold, not a truth boundary.

Do not infer

A beta coefficient is a forecast, causal effect or exact hedge ratio.

What does altcoin beta to Bitcoin mean?

A 30-day beta of 1.5 means the fitted historical relationship associated a 1% BTC daily move with about a 1.5% altcoin move in the same direction on average. A negative beta means the fitted direction was opposite, though such estimates can be unstable.

Beta measures slope, not performance. An asset can have high beta and still lose money, and the intercept, timing, fees and unmodeled factors remain outside the displayed coefficient.

Why does R-squared matter next to beta?

Beta can be numerically large even when the scatter of daily returns barely follows a line. R-squared describes how much of the asset's return variation the one-factor BTC regression accounted for inside the sample.

CoinNudge marks 0.30 as a review threshold and prioritizes those rows, but it is not statistical certification. Crypto relationships can break immediately after the window ends.

What do upside and downside beta add?

A single beta averages BTC-up and BTC-down days. Separate coefficients can reveal historical asymmetry: an asset may amplify BTC declines more than rallies, or the reverse.

Directional beta needs enough observations and variation inside each subset. If every selected BTC-up day had almost the same return, the variance denominator collapses and the honest output is blank rather than zero.

How should beta be used with an altcoin alert?

When an altcoin alert arrives, beta helps separate an asset-specific event from ordinary BTC amplification. A two-percent altcoin move can be less unusual for a high-beta asset during a strong BTC session than for a historically low-beta asset.

Then check relative strength, sector breadth, current volatility and liquidity. Beta alone cannot identify whether a move is idiosyncratic, crowded or executable.

Can I use BTC beta as a fixed hedge ratio for an altcoin position?

Treat it as an estimated historical sensitivity rather than a fixed hedge. The estimate depends on the window and can be unreliable when explanatory power is low or the relationship changes.

Daily-return beta does not guarantee an intraday hedge and does not include funding or execution costs.

• Read beta with R-squared, correlation, return counts and window length.
• Compare 30-day and 90-day estimates and inspect downside behavior.
• If researching hedges, model position units, rebalancing, execution costs and residual exposure separately.

Verify: Binance Spot klines · CoinNudge methodology

What is measured, and what is not?

Method and data boundary

CoinNudge selects up to 50 crypto-only Binance USDT spot markets above $1 million rolling quote volume, excludes BTC from rows and aligns each asset's completed daily simple returns with BTC on identical open dates. OLS beta equals covariance(asset, BTC) divided by variance(BTC). Correlation is the Pearson coefficient and R-squared is its square in this one-factor regression. The 30-day coefficient includes an approximate normal-theory 95% OLS interval from residual variance and benchmark return variance. Upside and downside beta repeat the calculation only for BTC-positive or BTC-negative days and remain blank when fewer than five observations or no benchmark variance exists.

Beta is a backward-looking one-factor estimate in a current liquidity-selected universe. The displayed 95% interval is not heteroskedasticity- or autocorrelation-robust and 30 daily observations remain a small sample. It does not imply causality, hedge precision, expected return or stable future sensitivity. Small directional samples, outliers, changing volatility and crypto's continuous market can move coefficients sharply.

Read the complete CoinNudge methodology

Sources and verification

• Binance Spot klinesAligned completed daily BTC and altcoin closes.
• CoinNudge methodologyLiquidity universe, return alignment and missing-estimate rules.

Frequently asked questions

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See whether a current move carries asset-specific strength, ordinary benchmark sensitivity or weak statistical fit.