Historical crypto calendar-effect research · By CoinNudge Research · Method reviewed 2026-09-12 · Guide updated 2026-09-12 · Live sources · Data observed at · Calculation equal-hour-weekend-weekday-1.3 · Auto-refresh about every 3600 seconds
Crypto weekend volume and volatility
Current answer: As of , using Binance Spot completed hourly candles: Among 2 assets with mature 90-day coverage, 2 have lower median weekend volume than weekdays and 0 have higher median absolute weekend movement. SOL remains Warming and is excluded from that conclusion. Weekend means Saturday/Sunday UTC.
Live sources
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Current source-backed snapshot
This page tests whether BTC, ETH and SOL Binance USDT spot markets have behaved differently on UTC weekends. It compares median one-hour quote volume, absolute return, high-low range, 90th-percentile move and validated taker-buy share. The 30-day rows publish after 27 complete days; each 90-day asset stays Warming and is excluded from the cross-asset 90-day answer until it has at least 80 complete days and 90% hourly coverage.
Input documentation: Binance Spot klines · CoinNudge methodology
Observation window: 30-day equal-hour comparison; each 90-day asset publishes only after its disclosed maturity gate
Calculation cadence: Auto-refresh about every 3600 seconds
Calculation version: equal-hour-weekend-weekday-1.3
Download current dataset: JSON · CSV Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.
| Asset / window | Status / coverage | Weekend vs weekday volume | Volume ratio / 95% day-block CI | Median absolute move | Movement ratio | Median range / ratio | Taker-buy share / valid N | P90 move | Complete days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC · 30d | mature · 96.7% · 696/720h | $22.79M / $44.65M | 0.510× · 0.342–0.746 · 9/20 day blocks · seed 21730 | 0.084% / 0.213% | 0.396× | 0.229% / 0.538% · 0.425× | 50.828% / 49.532% · N 216/480 | 0.328% / 0.692% | 9 / 20 |
| BTC · 90d | mature · 98.9% · 2136/2160h | $20.25M / $38.50M | 0.526× · 0.467–0.588 · 25/64 day blocks · seed 21790 | 0.093% / 0.205% | 0.453× | 0.247% / 0.493% · 0.502× | 49.720% / 49.285% · N 600/1536 | 0.327% / 0.639% | 25 / 64 |
| ETH · 30d | mature · 96.7% · 696/720h | $13.59M / $26.21M | 0.518× · 0.288–0.863 · 9/20 day blocks · seed 22530 | 0.126% / 0.262% | 0.479× | 0.315% / 0.673% · 0.468× | 51.074% / 49.477% · N 216/480 | 0.478% / 0.793% | 9 / 20 |
| ETH · 90d | mature · 98.9% · 2136/2160h | $8.72M / $17.44M | 0.500× · 0.394–0.638 · 25/64 day blocks · seed 22590 | 0.127% / 0.251% | 0.507× | 0.374% / 0.645% · 0.579× | 49.857% / 49.395% · N 600/1536 | 0.461% / 0.782% | 25 / 64 |
| SOL · 30d | mature · 96.7% · 696/720h | $5.76M / $9.58M | 0.601× · 0.334–1.018 · 9/20 day blocks · seed 23830 | 0.189% / 0.335% | 0.563× | 0.523% / 0.876% · 0.597× | 50.519% / 50.573% · N 216/480 | 0.922% / 1.107% | 9 / 20 |
| SOL · 90d | warming · 47.8% · 1032/2160h | — / — | — | — / — | — | — / — · — | — / — · N 312/720 | — / — | 13 / 30 |
Current source health
- research long candles: live; last success 2026-09-13 15:35:35 UTC
Weekend means Saturday and Sunday in UTC, not the reader's local weekend. Medians compare equal one-hour observations rather than unequal two-day and five-day totals. A 90-day asset remains null and is excluded from the 90-day cross-asset summary until at least 80 complete days and 90% hourly coverage qualify. BTC, ETH and SOL Binance USDT spot do not represent all assets or venues.
How to read this page
- Compare medians per hour, not raw two-day versus five-day totals.
- Use the 30-day result now; read a 90-day result only when that asset is marked mature.
- The volume-ratio interval uses 1,000 deterministic bootstrap resamples of complete UTC-day blocks, preserving the 24 hourly observations within each sampled day. Every row publishes its seed, xorshift32 PRNG and linear percentile interpolation rule.
- Compare volume, absolute return, high-low range and validated taker-buy share with their sample counts.
- A weekend effect can disappear after costs and can change in a new regime.
What can this page tell you quickly?
- Best for
- Testing whether current weekend conditions differ from this basket's historical weekday baseline.
- Weekend definition
- Saturday and Sunday in UTC.
- Comparison unit
- Median per completed one-hour observation.
- Do not infer
- A weekend/weekday difference is a ready-made trading strategy.
Why compare median hourly observations instead of total volume?
A calendar week contains 48 weekend hours and 120 weekday hours. Summing both sides would almost always make weekday volume larger even if the typical weekend hour were equally active. Dividing totals by day can still be distorted by extreme sessions.
CoinNudge compares the median completed one-hour observation. The table also publishes observation and complete-day counts so unequal sample sizes remain visible.
| Method | Fair comparison? | Problem | CoinNudge choice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw weekend vs weekday total | No | 2 days versus 5 days | Rejected |
| Average weekly total | No | Still unequal duration | Rejected |
| Median hourly observation | Yes | Different sample counts remain | Used |
| Current partial weekend | No | Incomplete day bias | Excluded |
Can crypto weekend volume fall while volatility rises?
Yes. Lower turnover can coexist with thinner books, allowing less notional to move price further. The opposite can also happen when a major event creates both high weekend volume and wide ranges.
That is why the page keeps volume, absolute return and high-low range separate. The relationship is observed for each asset and window rather than assumed.
| Weekend volume | Weekend movement | Possible context | Next evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower | Higher | Thinner liquidity or event | Order-book depth |
| Higher | Higher | Active repricing | CVD and liquidations |
| Lower | Lower | Quiet participation | Wait for current trigger |
| Higher | Lower | Two-way absorption | Close location and flow |
Why show both 30-day and 90-day weekend comparisons?
Thirty days responds more quickly to a current regime but contains fewer weekend days. Ninety days supplies more weekends, but CoinNudge publishes an asset's 90-day statistics only after at least 80 complete days and 90% hourly coverage qualify.
A Warming 90-day row is excluded from the cross-asset long-window conclusion. Once mature, agreement across windows is stronger historical evidence; disagreement can indicate a changed regime.
| 30d | 90d | Current reading | Caution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mature | Warming | Use 30d only | Do not infer persistence |
| Weekend lower | Weekend lower | Persistent lower activity | Can change now |
| Weekend higher | Weekend lower | Recent reversal | Different event mix |
| Near 1 | Near 1 | Little median difference | Tail risk can still differ |
How should a trader use weekend evidence with live alerts?
If a signal arrives during a historically lower-volume weekend regime, verify current spread and depth before assuming the displayed price scales to position size. If movement frequency is historically higher, use wider uncertainty rather than labeling every move a false breakout.
The page is a context layer. CoinNudge alerts remain event-driven and do not trigger solely because the calendar says Saturday or Sunday.
Why compare typical hourly volume rather than total weekend and weekday volume?
The two groups contain different numbers of hours. Comparing totals alone confounds activity intensity with the amount of time included; per-hour distributions provide a more comparable starting point.
A weekend average is not a forecast for the next weekend. The current BTC/ETH/SOL venue sample does not cover every crypto market.
- Apply the same UTC weekend definition and completed-hour filter to both groups.
- Compare volume and volatility separately over the same sample period.
- Inspect outlier weekends and 30-day versus 90-day stability before calling the pattern persistent.
Verify: Binance Spot klines · CoinNudge methodology
What is measured, and what is not?
| Measured claim | Evidence on this page | Boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Weekend median hourly activity differs from weekdays by a stated ratio. | Equal-duration completed Binance Spot observations. | It is not a global exchange-volume comparison. |
| Weekend price movement can be higher or lower than weekday movement. | Median absolute return, range and P90 by group. | Historical difference is not future probability. |
| The result uses complete UTC days and bounded assets. | 24-hour completeness gate for BTC, ETH and SOL. | UTC geography and other assets remain outside scope. |
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Method and data boundary
CoinNudge uses completed one-hour Binance Spot candles and admits an asset-day only when all 24 UTC buckets are present. Saturday and Sunday UTC observations form the weekend group; Monday through Friday form the weekday group. Each statistic is a median or percentile across equal one-hour observations. Volume ratio equals weekend median hourly quote volume divided by weekday median hourly quote volume. Its 95% robustness interval uses 1,000 deterministic bootstrap resamples of complete UTC-day blocks, retaining all 24 within-day hours in each sampled block. Seed equals 100 × the sum of uppercase displayed asset-symbol Unicode code points plus requested window days. Sampling uses the published unsigned 32-bit xorshift32 state transitions; 2.5% and 97.5% bounds use linear interpolation at sorted position (n-1)×q. Movement ratio uses median absolute open-to-close return in the same way. Taker-buy share only includes rows marked valid by the historical archive.
UTC weekends may not match the reader's local calendar. The fixed BTC, ETH and SOL Binance basket does not represent every crypto asset or venue. Every asset-window exposes requested days, complete days, hourly coverage, first/last observation and rejected hours; immature 90-day metrics remain null. Calendar effects can reverse and are not a profitable strategy after costs.
Sources and verification
- Binance Spot klinesCompleted BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT and SOLUSDT hourly candles.
- CoinNudge methodologyArchive completeness and valid taker-data rules.
Frequently asked questions
Which days count as the crypto weekend?
Saturday and Sunday in UTC.
Why not compare total weekend and weekday volume?
The groups contain two versus five days, so raw totals are not equal-duration comparisons.
Which assets are included?
BTC, ETH and SOL Binance USDT spot.
Does lower weekend volume mean lower volatility?
No. Thinner liquidity can coexist with larger price movement.
Why can 30d and 90d disagree?
Recent conditions can differ from the longer sample and each contains different events.
Is this a weekend trading strategy?
No. It is historical context before current liquidity, costs and signals are checked.
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