Live market participation context · By CoinNudge Research · Method reviewed 2026-09-11 · Guide updated 2026-09-12 · Live sources · Data observed at · Calculation market-regime-evidence-1.0 · Auto-refresh about every 300 seconds
Crypto market regime and evidence today
Current answer: As of , using CoinNudge liquid-market breadth, sector, sentiment and dominance snapshots: The current evidence label is “broad risk-off”, with 100.00% directional agreement. 43.40% of the liquid universe is advancing, the equal-weight median is -0.68%, and Bitcoin is -0.45% over 24 hours. The label prioritizes research; it is not a forecast.
Live sources
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Current source-backed snapshot
This page combines six separately sourced observations—liquid-market breadth, the equal-weight median return, Bitcoin's 24-hour move, sector participation, Bitcoin Fear and Greed and BTC market-cap dominance—to describe whether the current crypto market is broadly risk-on, broadly risk-off, Bitcoin-led, altcoin-resilient or mixed. The label summarizes agreement between current evidence; it is not a model prediction, probability of profit or instruction to trade.
Input documentation: Binance Spot market data · Alternative.me Fear and Greed · CoinGecko global data · CoinNudge methodology
Observation window: Rolling 24-hour participation with the latest daily sentiment and market-cap context
Calculation cadence: Auto-refresh about every 300 seconds
Calculation version: market-regime-evidence-1.0
Download current dataset: JSON · CSV Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.
| Regime dimension | Current value | State | Underlying evidence | How to use it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market breadth | 43.40 % advancing | negative | 69 up / 89 down | Shows whether participation is broad or narrow. |
| Median liquid-market return | -0.68 % / 24h | negative | 159 equal-weight markets | Prevents BTC or one outlier from defining the whole market. |
| Bitcoin return | -0.45 % / 24h | negative | Binance BTC/USDT spot | Provides the benchmark that breadth and altcoins are compared with. |
| Sector participation | 25.00 % positive baskets | negative | Leader: Gaming | Distinguishes broad rotation from a single-sector move. |
| Bitcoin sentiment | 61.00 Fear & Greed / 100 | Greed | Alternative.me daily reading | Adds mood context; it is not a timing rule. |
| Bitcoin dominance | 58.91 % market cap | context | CoinGecko aggregated market cap | Shows whether capitalisation is concentrated in Bitcoin. |
Current source health
- binance: live; last success 2026-09-13 15:40:48 UTC
- alternative fng: live; last success 2026-09-13 15:34:27 UTC
- coingecko market context: live; last success 2026-09-13 15:35:34 UTC
The regime label is a transparent summary of current observations, not a forecast or probability of profit. It can change as rolling 24-hour windows and liquidity-selected constituents change.
How to read this page
- Start with breadth and the median: they show whether the move is shared beyond BTC.
- Compare Bitcoin with participation: disagreement identifies concentration, not confirmation.
- Use sectors to locate where strength or weakness is distributed.
- Treat sentiment and dominance as context; neither is a standalone buy or sell trigger.
What can this page tell you quickly?
- Best for
- Deciding whether a signal is occurring inside a broad, narrow or conflicted market.
- Primary evidence
- Equal-weight liquid-market breadth, median return, BTC and sector participation.
- Refresh
- About every five minutes from shared local snapshots.
- Do not infer
- A regime label does not predict the next return or identify an entry price.
What does each crypto market regime mean?
Broad risk-on requires positive direction to be shared by Bitcoin, the median liquid market and sector participation. Broad risk-off is the opposite: weakness is distributed rather than isolated. A Bitcoin-led regime appears when BTC is positive while the median or advancing share is weak; altcoin resilience appears when breadth is firmer while BTC is negative.
Mixed or selective is a useful result, not a missing answer. It warns that a signal from one coin has weaker market-wide confirmation and should be checked against its own sector, liquidity and derivatives context.
| Regime | Observed combination | Useful next check | What it does not mean |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broad risk-on | BTC, median and breadth broadly positive | Is volume and leverage confirmation healthy? | All coins will rise |
| Broad risk-off | BTC, median and sectors broadly weak | Are liquidations expanding or fading? | A bottom is imminent |
| Bitcoin-led | BTC stronger than participation | Check BTC dominance and alt/BTC ratios | Bitcoin must continue |
| Altcoin resilience | Breadth firmer than BTC | Check sector breadth and liquidity | Altcoin season is guaranteed |
| Mixed / selective | Directional checks disagree | Focus on asset-specific evidence | No opportunities exist |
Why read market breadth before the headline Bitcoin move?
A capitalization-weighted headline can look healthy when only Bitcoin and a few large assets are positive. CoinNudge gives every eligible liquid spot market one vote and publishes the median, so a narrow rally cannot silently become a whole-market claim.
The liquidity floor and crypto-only classification matter. Stable-value assets, tokenized stocks and tokenized ETFs are excluded from the denominator. The page links to the shared methodology so changes in the eligible universe are auditable rather than hidden.
| Field | Question answered | Stronger confirmation | Weak signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Advancing share | How many eligible coins are up? | Above 55% with positive median | BTC up but fewer than 45% advancing |
| Median return | What did the typical coin do? | Same sign as BTC | Opposite sign to BTC |
| Sector share | Is participation distributed by theme? | Most baskets share direction | One basket carries the move |
| BTC dominance | Is market cap concentrated? | Use with relative strength | Never use alone as timing |
How should a trader use the regime alongside an alert?
Use regime as a filter on interpretation, not as an automatic gate. A bullish technical event during broad risk-on has wider participation behind it; the same event during broad risk-off may be an isolated rebound that deserves stronger volume and higher-timeframe confirmation.
For a bearish event, broad risk-off supplies context but still does not determine position size or entry. Check order-book depth, volatility and leverage concentration before assuming a chart pattern is tradable.
| Incoming alert | Regime context | Question to ask | Relevant CoinNudge page |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish breakout | Broad risk-on | Is relative volume and ATR elevated? | Breakout scanner |
| Bullish crossover | Mixed | Does 1h/4h trend agree? | Technical signals |
| Sharp decline | Broad risk-off | Is OI leaving or leverage building? | Squeeze risk |
| Altcoin strength | Bitcoin-led | Is the alt/BTC ratio actually rising? | Strongest altcoins vs BTC |
When can a regime label change without a major new event?
Rolling 24-hour returns change as old observations leave the window. The liquidity-selected universe can also add or remove assets near the $1 million floor. Those mechanics can move breadth even when the latest minute is quiet.
CoinNudge therefore publishes source time, eligible count, calculation version and the underlying dimensions. A reader can inspect the evidence instead of treating the text label as a permanent market state.
How would I test whether a market-regime label improves an event study?
Assign the regime using only observations available at the event time, then compare the same event family across regimes. Today's reconstructed label cannot be assumed to have existed at an earlier point.
This is a proposed research design, not a published performance result. Historical regime snapshots need confirmed coverage outside the fixed event-study product.
- Save the label, component readings, their ages and the eligible universe.
- Keep event definitions and forward windows unchanged across regime groups.
- Report sample counts and mixed or degraded states rather than discarding them after seeing outcomes.
Verify: Binance Spot market data · Alternative.me Fear and Greed · CoinGecko global data · CoinNudge methodology
What is measured, and what is not?
| Measured claim | Evidence on this page | Boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Current participation is broad, narrow or mixed. | Eligible-market breadth, median, BTC and sector votes. | A current description is not a next-period forecast. |
| Bitcoin is leading or lagging the typical liquid market. | BTC return versus equal-weight median and advancing share. | Different venue and index universes remain disclosed. |
| The regime has a stated level of internal agreement. | Four transparent directional votes. | Agreement is not statistical confidence or win probability. |
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Method and data boundary
CoinNudge applies its shared crypto-only asset policy and $1 million rolling quote-volume floor to the Binance USDT spot universe. Every eligible market receives one breadth vote, and the median prevents the largest coins from dominating. Bitcoin direction is compared with breadth and the share of transparent sector baskets whose median return is positive. Alternative.me sentiment and CoinGecko BTC dominance remain contextual fields and do not add hidden directional votes. Four disclosed directional votes produce the regime label; agreement is the absolute vote balance divided by non-neutral votes.
The regime label is a transparent summary of current observations, not a forecast or probability of profit. It can change as rolling 24-hour windows and liquidity-selected constituents change. Sentiment and dominance use different provider universes from Binance breadth.
Sources and verification
- Binance Spot market dataEligible-market rolling price and quote-volume observations.
- Alternative.me Fear and GreedOne Bitcoin-led daily sentiment reading.
- CoinGecko global dataAggregated Bitcoin market-cap share.
- CoinNudge methodologyAsset policy, sector baskets, breadth and staleness rules.
Frequently asked questions
What is the crypto market regime today?
The current answer is generated from the live dimensions above and can change as rolling data updates.
Is risk-on a buy signal?
No. It describes broad current participation and does not forecast the next return.
Why can BTC rise while the regime is mixed?
The median coin or most sector baskets may not be participating.
Does Fear and Greed determine the label?
No. It is displayed as contextual mood and does not add a hidden directional vote.
How often does the page update?
The combined snapshot refreshes about every five minutes; source frequencies differ.
Which assets enter breadth?
Crypto-only Binance USDT spot markets above the disclosed $1 million rolling volume floor.
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