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Is the options market pricing more movement than the spot market recently delivered? · By CoinNudge Research · Method reviewed 2026-09-13 · Guide updated 2026-09-13 · Historical study updated · Observation range: – · Calculation historical-evidence-1.2 · Auto-refresh about every 21600 seconds

BTC and ETH implied vs 30-day realized volatility

Current answer: As of , using CoinNudge local archive; source and scope stated in each row: Each daily DVOL close is paired with the 720 completed Binance hourly returns ending no later than that reading. Observation rows publish the DVOL selection rule, RV start/end, first/last close and gap count. IV observation coverage and the 30-day RV input lookback are separate ranges.

Historical study updated

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Current source-backed snapshot

Compare each sampled Deribit DVOL reading with the trailing 30-day realized volatility that could be calculated from closed Binance Spot hourly candles before that reading. The difference is quoted in annualized volatility percentage points, not dollars or expected profit. This page adds a dated comparison series to the current implied-volatility dashboard. It does not compare today's options price with tomorrow's unknown realized result. Missing hourly returns suppress the realized-volatility field rather than shortening the lookback.

Input documentation: Deribit DVOL methodology · CoinNudge methodology · Binance Spot candle field documentation

Observation window: Requested windows and actual coverage are recorded separately

Calculation cadence: Auto-refresh about every 21600 seconds

Calculation version: historical-evidence-1.2

Download current dataset: JSON · CSV Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.

BTC and ETH implied vs 30-day realized volatility — CoinNudge live research
BTC and ETH implied vs 30-day realized volatility: a current source-backed visual summarizing Actual observation range, Coverage and missingness, Versioned calculation.
AssetSample statusIV daysAligned daysFirst IV UTCLast IV UTCLatest DVOL %Latest trailing 30d RV %Latest IV minus RV ppMedian spread pp
BTCexploratory992026-09-05 23:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 11:00:00 UTC38.670040.9715-2.3015-0.6231
ETHexploratory992026-09-05 23:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 11:00:00 UTC53.860057.6565-3.7965-0.8667

Observation evidence

First 30 of 18 observations. JSON and CSV contain all published evidence. CSV dataset_section distinguishes summary and observation rows.

symbolobserved_atdvolrealized_30d_pctspread_pointshourly_returnsrv_startrv_endexpected_hourly_candlesavailable_hourly_candlesmissing_hourly_candlesfirst_candle_timelast_candle_timefirst_closelast_closemissing_hourly_returnscontinuity_gapdvol_selection_rulestatussourcecalculation_version
BTC2026-09-13 11:00:00 UTC38.670040.9715-2.30157202026-08-14 10:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 11:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-14 10:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 10:00:00 UTC62814.140076677.29000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
BTC2026-09-12 23:00:00 UTC36.980041.0167-4.03677202026-08-13 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-12 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-13 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-12 22:00:00 UTC63530.010077232.17000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
BTC2026-09-11 23:00:00 UTC36.750041.1811-4.43117202026-08-12 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-11 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-12 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-11 22:00:00 UTC63432.2800771500falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
BTC2026-09-10 23:00:00 UTC40.240040.2419-0.00197202026-08-11 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-10 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-11 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-10 22:00:00 UTC63668.490076836.45000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
BTC2026-09-09 23:00:00 UTC40.200040.00920.19087202026-08-10 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-09 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-10 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-09 22:00:00 UTC6401677924.06000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
BTC2026-09-08 23:00:00 UTC39.920039.74660.17347202026-08-09 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-08 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-09 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-08 22:00:00 UTC65077.130078562.44000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
BTC2026-09-07 23:00:00 UTC38.790039.4131-0.62317202026-08-08 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-07 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-08 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-07 22:00:00 UTC64950.610078952.19000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
BTC2026-09-06 23:00:00 UTC39.320039.22500.09507202026-08-07 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-06 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-07 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-06 22:00:00 UTC6488880055.17000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
BTC2026-09-05 23:00:00 UTC38.660039.2894-0.62947202026-08-06 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-05 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-06 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-05 22:00:00 UTC64351.490079783.99000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
ETH2026-09-13 11:00:00 UTC53.860057.6565-3.79657202026-08-14 10:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 11:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-14 10:00:00 UTC2026-09-13 10:00:00 UTC1876.19002472.18000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
ETH2026-09-12 23:00:00 UTC52.610057.5554-4.94547202026-08-13 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-12 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-13 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-12 22:00:00 UTC1889.400025230falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
ETH2026-09-11 23:00:00 UTC51.760057.6475-5.88757202026-08-12 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-11 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-12 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-11 22:00:00 UTC1878.45002511.79000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
ETH2026-09-10 23:00:00 UTC53.360054.2267-0.86677202026-08-11 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-10 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-11 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-10 22:00:00 UTC1882.16002445.08000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
ETH2026-09-09 23:00:00 UTC53.730053.7471-0.01717202026-08-10 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-09 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-10 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-09 22:00:00 UTC1876.14002450.37000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
ETH2026-09-08 23:00:00 UTC53.860053.56000.30007202026-08-09 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-08 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-09 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-08 22:00:00 UTC1919.55002489.01000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
ETH2026-09-07 23:00:00 UTC52.600053.1828-0.58287202026-08-08 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-07 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-08 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-07 22:00:00 UTC1916.75002483.06000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
ETH2026-09-06 23:00:00 UTC53.190052.86350.32657202026-08-07 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-06 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-07 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-06 22:00:00 UTC1914.84002508.32000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2
ETH2026-09-05 23:00:00 UTC51.720052.8902-1.17027202026-08-06 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-05 23:00:00 UTC72172102026-08-06 22:00:00 UTC2026-09-05 22:00:00 UTC1905.25002480.98000falselast archived daily DVOL close for each UTC dayaligned windowsDeribit DVOL + Binance Spot hourly closeshistorical-evidence-1.2

Historical reconstruction is not proof of information available then or an executed return.

How to read this page

  • Is the options market pricing more movement than the spot market recently delivered?
  • BTC and ETH; Deribit DVOL versus Binance USDT spot hourly returns.
  • Read actual coverage and missing values before comparing outcomes.
  • Download the evidence; distinguish historical reconstruction from locally recorded events.

What can this page tell you quickly?

Best for
Is the options market pricing more movement than the spot market recently delivered?
Measured scope
BTC and ETH; Deribit DVOL versus Binance USDT spot hourly returns.
Update schedule
Recalculated every six hours; completed-window studies exclude the ongoing UTC day.
Do not infer
No guaranteed trading edge, complete point-in-time history or automatic entitlement to every data family.

Why does a positive spread not prove options are overpriced?

Implied volatility concerns a future distribution, while trailing realized volatility describes a past window. A positive gap may reflect upcoming uncertainty, compensation for risk, different market composition or a quiet recent sample. None of those explanations can be selected from the spread alone.

The useful research task is to identify when expectations diverge from recent behavior, then inspect actual expiries and event risk. Measuring a realized volatility premium requires waiting for a matching forward horizon, not subtracting trailing RV and calling the remainder profit.

Verify: Deribit DVOL methodology

How are the two timestamps aligned?

Each RV window ends no later than its paired DVOL observation. An incomplete sequence does not become a 29-day substitute for the advertised 30-day statistic. The hourly-return count is the immediate evidence check: the published estimate requires exactly 720 consecutive returns.

The date coverage is the actual observed series, not a promise of years of options history. New archived candles can change reconstructed historical RV, so retain the downloaded snapshot and calculation version when citing this table.

How should an options researcher use this page?

Read the latest qualified BTC and ETH rows separately. Compare changes through the dated observations rather than treating the highest gap as a trade recommendation. Consult the term-structure page to see which expiry is expensive and the skew page to distinguish downside demand from general movement pricing.

An options strategy also depends on strike, premium, execution spread, hedging frequency and transaction costs. These are outside a DVOL-to-spot-volatility comparison; even a correct directional interpretation of volatility does not determine a trade's profit.

How can I audit and cite this measurement?

CheckWhat to verifyWhy it changes interpretation
ScopeBTC and ETH; Deribit DVOL versus Binance USDT spot hourly returns.Do not generalize a named sample to the whole crypto market.
FormulaSelect the last archived Deribit DVOL daily close for each UTC day. Require 721 consecutive Binance Spot hourly closes for 720 log returns, publish RV start/end and first/last close, annualize sample volatility by sqrt(365 × 24), and calculate spread as DVOL minus trailing RV.A similarly named indicator can use a different convention.
Data timeObservation window versus materialization timeA fresh computation is not necessarily a fresh source observation.
DeliveryPublic evidence versus subscribed Market Events v1Inspect the data catalog before assuming commercial inclusion.

What is measured, and what is not?

Measured claimEvidence on this pageBoundary
Is the options market pricing more movement than the spot market recently delivered?The current table and downloadable rows using iv-realized-comparison.BTC and ETH; Deribit DVOL versus Binance USDT spot hourly returns.
Results can be checked against an explicit computation.Select the last archived Deribit DVOL daily close for each UTC day. Require 721 consecutive Binance Spot hourly closes for 720 log returns, publish RV start/end and first/last close, annualize sample volatility by sqrt(365 × 24), and calculate spread as DVOL minus trailing RV.Archive availability and revisions constrain historical reproducibility.

Method and data boundary

Select the last archived Deribit DVOL daily close available for each UTC day. At that timestamp, require 721 consecutive closed Binance Spot hourly candles to produce exactly 720 log returns. RV is sample standard deviation multiplied by sqrt(365 × 24) × 100; spread = DVOL − trailing 30-day RV. Observation rows publish IV time, RV start/end, first/last close and missing-return count. Historical values are recalculated with the archive available at publication; this is not a revision-complete point-in-time backtest.

BTC and ETH; Deribit DVOL versus Binance USDT spot hourly returns. Historical results are descriptive, not executed profits or guaranteed future behavior.

Read the complete CoinNudge methodology

Sources and verification

Frequently asked questions

Is the options market pricing more movement than the spot market recently delivered?

Compare each sampled Deribit DVOL reading with the trailing 30-day realized volatility that could be calculated from closed Binance Spot hourly candles before that reading. The difference is quoted in annualized volatility percentage points, not dollars or expected profit. This page adds a dated comparison series to the current implied-volatility dashboard. It does not compare today's options price with tomorrow's unknown realized result. Missing hourly returns suppress the realized-volatility field rather than shortening the lookback.

How often do the numbers change?

A bounded background calculation runs at most every six hours. Look at the actual observation interval as well as the calculation time; missing and pending data are not filled with zero.