Single-asset evidence report · By CoinNudge Research · · Guide updated 2026-10-03 · 20 min read
What is ONDO coin, and is it worth holding?
ONDO is the governance token associated with Ondo DAO and Flux Finance; it is not itself a tokenized Treasury product such as USDY. For a holding decision, a defensible ONDO holding case needs a documented link from growing RWA activity to ONDO tokenholder economics and a plan for potential increases in tradable float. In the frozen Binance spot daily-open window ending September 25, 2026, ONDO returned +64.5% versus BTC +40.5%; across 14 earlier monthly starts, its median was −4.9% and 5/14 beat BTC. Overlapping history is not a future win rate or personal buy call.
Inspect all historical starts · Check current market context
What should investors know about ONDO?
- ONDO gained +64.5% in the last frozen 90-day window; this differs from its historical monthly-start median −4.9%.
- 5/14 complete historical 90-day starts beat BTC, while 14/14 had a deeper daily-open drawdown.
- A defensible ONDO holding case needs a documented link from growing RWA activity to ONDO tokenholder economics and a plan for potential increases in tradable float.
What is ONDO coin, and is it a tokenized Treasury investment?
ONDO is the governance token associated with Ondo DAO and Flux Finance; it is not itself a tokenized Treasury product such as USDY.
Start with the instrument you want: ONDO for the documented DAO governance role, a separately eligible Ondo product for its own asset claim, or neither if the required right cannot be verified. The name Ondo alone does not identify what a purchase delivers.
The ONDO holding question then has three tests: whether a token-specific economic mechanism exists, whether released inventory can be absorbed, and whether the historical risk is tolerable. This report pairs 14 frozen 90-day starts with BTC; its separately sampled supply and order book are not facts available at those historical entry dates.
| ONDO at a glance | Dated evidence | How to read it |
|---|---|---|
| Documented token role | DAO and Flux Finance governance under the foundation documents | Not an automatic claim on every project activity |
| Last frozen 90-day spot return | +64.5% | BTC on the same UTC dates: +40.5% |
| Historical 90-day monthly median | −4.9% | 14 overlapping complete starts, not a forecast |
| Current circulating supply | 4,869,330,647 | CoinGecko response updated 2026-09-26T08:35:30.000Z |
Verify: ONDO token and distribution — Ondo Foundation · Ondo DAO governance · USDY product eligibility — Ondo Finance
Do ONDO holders receive USDY yield or only DAO voting rights?
ONDO ownership provides the documented Ondo DAO/Flux Finance governance role, not USDY yield, ownership of its Treasury backing or shares in Ondo Finance. Product-customer rights and tokenholder voting are separate claims.
When evaluating a proposed benefit, identify its beneficiary in the actual terms. An ONDO proposal may influence DAO parameters; a USDY instrument may carry product-specific protections and eligibility. Unless a token-specific distribution rule and executed payment are evidenced, do not value ONDO as if those product payments belong to you.
Locked ONDO can vote according to the Foundation documentation. That means circulating-float percentage alone is not a measure of voting influence. Check delegated votes, proposal status and execution—not forum approval alone—before treating a governance change as an enacted benefit.
| Who owns what | Documented role or participation | What cannot be inferred |
|---|---|---|
| ONDO holder | DAO and Flux Finance governance under the foundation documents | No automatic USDY collateral, USDY yield or Ondo company equity claim established here |
| USDY holder | A distinct product instrument under issuer terms and geographic restrictions | Do not transfer USDY protections or yield to ONDO |
| Community participant | Forum discussion; ONDO voting can be delegated | Governance participation is not guaranteed financial return |
Verify: ONDO token and distribution — Ondo Foundation · Ondo DAO governance · USDY product eligibility — Ondo Finance
Does Ondo’s RWA growth actually benefit ONDO token holders?
No automatic pass-through from Ondo product growth to ONDO holders was established in the reviewed terms. ONDO has a documented governance role, while USDY and OUSG are separate instruments; recent token-price strength cannot turn those different claims into one.
Ondo runs tokenized-asset products, but the investment unit matters: ONDO is identified by the Ondo Foundation as a governance token for the Ondo DAO and Flux Finance. USDY is a separately issued yield-bearing product with its own eligibility and asset-protection terms. A rise in USDY assets does not, by itself, calculate an ONDO holder’s cash distribution.
The concrete research question is whether governance ever directs product economics to ONDO, or whether observed product adoption benefits a separate legal entity and its product-token holders. The official DAO documentation describes voting on protocol economic parameters and upgrades. This is decision influence, not a verified direct claim on every Ondo business line.
A useful RWA-to-ONDO test follows one product at a time: identify who legally earns its return, then find the rule that sends value to ONDO or requires ONDO use. If the chain stops at an issuer or a product investor, product growth may be real without establishing the passive-token thesis. This is an analytical check, not a finding that all possible future ONDO mechanisms are impossible.
ONDO's dated price experiment below measures spot returns and drawdown paths, not the causal contribution of project adoption. The release has no independently frozen continuous operating-economics series that completes this value-capture test.
Verify: ONDO token and distribution — Ondo Foundation · Ondo DAO governance · USDY product eligibility — Ondo Finance
Can ONDO float expand without minting new tokens?
Yes. ONDO's tradable float can expand when existing restricted allocations become transferable without minting new total-supply units. The dated provider snapshot below does not identify which recipients can sell during your holding horizon.
CoinGecko’s separate 2026-09-26T08:35:30.000Z response reports 4,869,330,647 circulating ONDO out of 10,000,000,000 total and 10,000,000,000 maximum. These are provider classifications, not an audit of custodian balances or a schedule of future exchange selling.
The Foundation states an initial ONDO supply of 10 billion with no scheduled inflation, but a distribution schedule can still increase freely tradable float. Its documentation says locked tokens may vote. The CoinGecko circulating figure is a provider estimate at one timestamp, not proof that every remaining token unlocks next month or is sold.
For ONDO, build a release checklist by allocation class: recipient, vesting rule, first transferable date, actual recipient transfer and fresh exchange depth. Existing locked units becoming transferable can dilute freely tradable float without increasing the stated total supply. If a class-specific schedule or wallet cannot be reconciled, keep the estimated release unknown rather than calling all remaining units an imminent sale.
| ONDO supply field | Frozen provider value | Reading rule |
|---|---|---|
| Circulating supply | 4,869,330,647 | CoinGecko provider definition at 2026-09-26T08:35:30.000Z |
| Total supply | 10,000,000,000 | May differ from circulating and maximum supply |
| Maximum supply | 10,000,000,000 | Missing is not zero and not equal to total supply |
| Reported circulating / maximum | 48.7% | Not a dated release schedule or tradable-float audit |
Verify: Frozen original supply response · ONDO token and distribution — Ondo Foundation · Ondo DAO governance · USDY product eligibility — Ondo Finance
Do ONDO tokenomics give holders product yield, and when does float expand?
ONDO is documented as a governance token, not an automatic entitlement to USDY yield, Ondo product revenue or company equity. The issuer states no planned inflation, but releases of already allocated tokens can still expand circulating float. Those are different supply mechanisms.
Trace the specific investor or contributor beneficiary and vesting terms, then verify transfer eligibility, executed wallet transfers and available exchange depth. Do not treat maximum supply minus current float as an immediate sale. These checks explain the cited token documents; they do not refresh the frozen September price observations.
| Token-economics dimension | Documented mechanism or attributed claim | What remains unproven / investor implication |
|---|---|---|
| Supply and allocation | 10 billion initial ONDO; the issuer states that no inflation is planned. Foundation, investors and contributor allocations are distinct from circulating float. | Issuer policy is not an independently guaranteed future supply cap. |
| Release mechanism | Investor and team tranches have different cliffs and linear-release periods; there is no single universal ONDO unlock date. | Reconcile the exact beneficiary, vesting contract and wallet transfer before estimating tradable supply. |
| Use and rights | ONDO is documented as a governance token; even some locked tokens can vote. | Owning ONDO does not automatically distribute Ondo product revenue or give equity in the company. |
| Investor check | Compare dated circulating supply and scheduled releases with exchange deposits and actual depth. | A scheduled vesting event is eligibility to transfer, not proof of an immediate sale. |
Did ONDO’s latest rally erase its longer-term loss versus BTC?
At the September 25 UTC daily-open endpoint, ONDO returned +64.5% over 90 days versus BTC +40.5% on exactly the same days. The 365-day ONDO path was −43.5% versus BTC −25.5%. These different windows are one dated path each—not five independent tests or a prediction.
The 90-day chart plots all 91 matched UTC daily opens from 2026-06-27 to 2026-09-25, normalized to 100 on the first day. A later CoinGecko price or 24-hour change may differ because the venue, market window and timestamp differ. The table reports the actual shared-start comparison rather than mixing unrelated provider percentages.
| Matched holding window | ONDO spot return | BTC spot return | ONDO minus BTC / status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 days | +40.2% | +10.5% | 29.7 pp |
| 30 days | +43.4% | +7.5% | 35.9 pp |
| 90 days | +64.5% | +40.5% | 24.0 pp |
| 180 days | +94.4% | +27.2% | 67.2 pp |
| 365 days | −43.5% | −25.5% | -18.0 pp |
Verify: Full dated path and methods
Did ONDO beat BTC across 14 earlier 90-day holding windows?
Across the frozen matched 90-day monthly starts, ONDO's median return was −4.9% versus BTC −8.4%, and 5/14 starts beat BTC. That is descriptive historical evidence, not a future success probability; the full overlapping sample, dependence check and opposing cases appear below.
We prespecified every first day of a month after the Binance listing had a full prior month, through June 2026. Of 14 candidate 90-day starts, 14 had a complete 91-daily-open ONDO/BTC pair and 0 were excluded for missing daily opens. The ONDO median endpoint was −4.9%, BTC's was −8.4%; ONDO beat BTC in 5/14. Those windows overlap and must not be treated as 14 independent win-probability trials.
ONDO had a deeper daily-open peak-to-trough drawdown in 14/14 matched windows. The lower 10th-percentile ONDO endpoint was −52.3% and the upper 90th percentile +30.4%. Every-third-month sensitivity has only 4 observations and 2 BTC-beating starts; it is a dependence check, not a statistically powered forecast.
The worst BTC-relative start was 2025-10-01: −57.4% for ONDO against −23.5% BTC, with −61.7% asset drawdown. A counterexample is 2026-05-01: +53.8% for ONDO versus −16.2% BTC. Showing both prevents the current rally or a past collapse from becoming the whole story.
| 90-day monthly cohort measure | ONDO | BTC / paired comparison | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Complete starts | 14 | 14 | Same UTC dates and 91 daily opens |
| Median endpoint | −4.9% | −8.4% | Not an expected future return |
| 10th / 90th percentile | −52.3% / +30.4% | −23.3% / +8.6% | Descriptive tail range |
| Outperformed BTC | 5/14 | — | Overlapping monthly windows |
| Deeper path drawdown | 14/14 | — | Measured at daily opens only |
| Every-third-month check | 2/4 | — | Small non-overlap sensitivity |
Verify: All matched starts and excluded candidates · Frozen calculation contract
Which ONDO entry dates won, lost or hid a deep drawdown?
Both winning and losing ONDO windows are shown: all 14 eligible same-date ONDO/BTC 90-day observations are visible chronologically below. The worst BTC-relative start was 2025-10-01: −57.4% for ONDO against −23.5% BTC, with −61.7% asset drawdown. A counterexample is 2026-05-01: +53.8% for ONDO versus −16.2% BTC. These are contrasting examples from the complete table, not independent future scenarios. A first-of-month start is the frozen sample design, not a suggested buying schedule.
Compare terminal return with interim drawdown in each row. Daily-open paths can understate intraday harm; fees, spreads, slippage, tax, staking and leverage are excluded. The complete input CSV and exclusion ledger are available for independent recalculation.
| UTC start | ONDO 90d | BTC 90d | ONDO − BTC | ONDO path drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | +5.8% | +25.3% | -19.5 pp | −38.9% |
| 2025-06-01 | +8.9% | +3.6% | +5.3 pp | −25.2% |
| 2025-07-01 | +17.8% | +4.7% | +13.1 pp | −23.7% |
| 2025-08-01 | −20.7% | −5.0% | -15.8 pp | −37.1% |
| 2025-09-01 | −43.2% | −16.1% | -27.1 pp | −58.0% |
| 2025-10-01 | −57.4% | −23.5% | -33.9 pp | −61.7% |
| 2025-11-01 | −54.1% | −22.8% | -31.4 pp | −55.1% |
| 2025-12-01 | −48.1% | −25.9% | -22.3 pp | −56.1% |
| 2026-01-01 | −24.0% | −22.1% | -1.9 pp | −50.8% |
| 2026-02-01 | −6.9% | −0.6% | -6.2 pp | −21.8% |
| 2026-03-01 | +35.8% | +9.7% | +26.1 pp | −23.8% |
| 2026-04-01 | +16.3% | −11.8% | +28.0 pp | −31.4% |
| 2026-05-01 | +53.8% | −16.2% | +70.0 pp | −31.7% |
| 2026-06-01 | −3.0% | +6.2% | -9.2 pp | −25.4% |
Can an ONDO order actually exit at the quoted price?
A quoted ONDO price does not guarantee your order can buy or exit there. This report has one dated Binance order-book sample, separate from historical daily turnover; execution requires a fresh route-specific book and cost check.
The historical ONDO/USDT Binance spot candles show $12,817,539 median daily quote turnover across 30 complete UTC days. This is a transaction-flow measure, not cash available at a specific bid or ask. It also excludes other exchanges and market-maker obligations.
A separate CoinNudge Binance book sample observed at 2026-09-26T08:35:34.993Z shows 1.83 bps quoted spread and $389,073 returned depth within ±1% of mid. The modelled $10,000 buy slippage is 6.94 bps before fees and latency. Recheck the live book and your actual venue; this is one snapshot, not guaranteed execution.
Before an actual ONDO order, match the pair, venue and observation time, then estimate the buy from asks and the planned exit from bids at the intended size. Add fees and any transfer costs; one basis point is 0.01%. If the returned levels cannot fill the size, or access/data is delayed, reduce the planned exposure or wait for adequate evidence—not extrapolate the historical turnover into depth.
| Liquidity or execution measure | Dated observed value | Limit |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day Binance spot median daily quote turnover | $12,817,539 | 30 complete archived UTC days; turnover ≠ executable depth |
| Sampled bid/ask spread | 1.83 bps | One Binance book observation; can change by the second |
| Visible depth within ±1% of mid | $389,073 | Returned 500 levels per side only |
| Simulated $10k buy / sell slippage | 6.94 / 3.85 bps | Excludes fees, latency and later book changes |
Verify: Frozen top-30 order-book source · Current market-depth research
Can an ONDO community claim establish tokenholder revenue?
ONDO discussion is evidence of attention, not a verified claim to Treasury yield. For a holding decision, a thread must lead to a dated token-specific proposal, operative terms or actual transfer before it becomes evidence of economic rights.
A third-party directory showed about 20,843 X mentions over 7 days and 5 Reddit mentions over 30 days for ONDO at the September 26 review. Those are different time windows and may include promotions, bots or ticker collisions. They are not unique people, buyers, monthly search volume or a measure of tokenholder rights.
The underlying social response was not frozen in this release. These report-time directory figures cannot now be independently replayed and are not used as a quantitative test of fundamental demand or current community size.
The important community argument is not whether tokenized treasuries are popular; it is whether ONDO owners control or receive value from the activities being promoted. Treat holder comments predicting buybacks or product-profit sharing as hypotheses until a governing proposal, legal term and actual transfer can be verified.
To use ONDO discussion constructively, choose one factual claim, follow its direct source, note the date and beneficiary, and compare it with the rights and supply checks in this report. An unsupported promotion remains attention evidence; it is not converted into a holder-benefit claim or buying score.
Verify: Cross-platform social directory · CoinGecko short-window search attention · ONDO token and distribution — Ondo Foundation · Ondo DAO governance · USDY product eligibility — Ondo Finance
When is an ONDO holding thesis supported—and when should it stay unconfirmed?
There is no unconditional yes from this evidence. A defensible ONDO holding case needs a documented link from growing RWA activity to ONDO tokenholder economics and a plan for potential increases in tradable float. The last frozen 90-day return was +64.5%, while the median of 14 earlier monthly-start windows was −4.9%; 5/14 beat BTC. These overlapping historical paths describe risk, not the chance of a profitable hold from today.
Evidence that would strengthen a holding thesis: A documented, executable DAO decision that links growing activity to ONDO economics, accompanied by sustained product use and manageable new float. Evidence that would weaken or end it: Product assets grow while ONDO receives no additional documented economic claim; float expands faster than demand or execution depth weakens.
A holder should state a time horizon, position size, acceptable drawdown and specific facts that would trigger a reassessment. Revision trigger for this report: A change in official rights, issuance schedule, DAO scope or product legal terms would require a new conclusion—not a silent copy edit. The checklist is not a personal recommendation, target price or promise that the next 90 days resemble a prior cohort.
Before treating ONDO as a holding candidate, write down the specific right being purchased and the allocation class that could add float during your horizon. A documented but unexecuted DAO idea belongs on a watchlist; a mismatched product-yield claim fails the thesis check. If rights pass but the live book cannot support your planned exit, defer the trade rather than enlarging a historical $10,000 simulation to your own order.
| Holding decision check | Evidence to verify | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Tokenholder benefit | DAO and Flux Finance governance under the foundation documents | No automatic USDY collateral, USDY yield or Ondo company equity claim established here |
| Future tradable supply | Official allocation dates and actual transfers | Provider float alone is not a sell forecast |
| Ability to exit | Fresh bid/ask depth plus fees and latency | Historical turnover is not a fill guarantee |
| Opportunity cost versus BTC | 14 complete historical paired starts plus current common window | Absolute gains can still lag BTC |
| Thesis invalidation | A change in official rights, issuance schedule, DAO scope or product legal terms would require a new conclusion—not a silent copy edit. | A stated reason to reassess is more useful than an indefinite hold slogan |
Verify: Frozen ONDO/BTC price study · Complete ONDO monthly observation ledger · ONDO token and distribution — Ondo Foundation · Ondo DAO governance · USDY product eligibility — Ondo Finance
How can you reproduce ONDO returns without assuming RWA revenue?
Reproduce ONDO's spot results from the matched asset/BTC daily inputs, complete observation CSV, exclusions and frozen JSON below. Keep the original calculation version and cutoff: the October 3, 2026 edit clarifies decisions and subquestions, not a recalculation or a fresh market release.
Calculation coin-profile-spot-paths-1.0; historical cutoff 2026-09-25 UTC. The archived candle ledger preserves event_time, observed_at and ingested_at. Historical fills may have been collected retrospectively; this study does not claim every bar was available to CoinNudge on its original event date.
Recent returns use the same UTC daily-open start and endpoint for ONDO and BTC with every intermediate day present. The monthly study buys at the first-day open and exits at the day-90 open, with 91 complete daily opens per pair; maximum drawdown is min(path / prior running peak − 1). It assumes no costs or dividends. The asset and BTC daily input CSVs enable independent numerical replay. Candidate and exclusion counts, input SHA-256 7a00a662b99f19397191fe6776cf08cd4bc2d4b559f9920de3be1061aa827248 of the complete normalized archive objects, and output SHA-256 a4f5b38660b3a64c5bbb4e365c3d0d7c55aeafc7c9c6549f155315187d423252 of the research result identify the frozen release; the manifest separately hashes each downloadable file.
Supply comes from a separate CoinGecko 2026-09-26T08:35:30.000Z observation; the separate book package was generated at 2026-09-26T08:37:46.983Z, while the ONDO row was observed at 2026-09-26T08:35:34.993Z. Neither is silently inserted as information known to historical cohort investors. No causal claim links community activity or project usage to later return.
| Reproducible file | Contents | Time/interpretation boundary |
|---|---|---|
| Research JSON | /research-data/coin-profiles/2026-09-26-v1/ondo.json | Calculation version, summary and full paired cohort |
| Observation CSV | /research-data/coin-profiles/2026-09-26-v1/ondo-monthly-observations.csv | 14 matched monthly starts |
| Asset daily inputs | /research-data/coin-profiles/2026-09-26-v1/ondo-daily-inputs.csv | Event, observation and ingestion dates |
| BTC daily inputs | /research-data/coin-profiles/2026-09-26-v1/btc-daily-inputs.csv | Matched BTC daily opens and provenance |
| Excluded starts | /research-data/coin-profiles/2026-09-26-v1/ondo-exclusions.csv | 0 missing pairs; header retained if zero |
| Supply source | /research-data/coin-profiles/2026-09-26-v1/coingecko-supply-source.json | Dated provider fields, not a historical feature |
| Order-book source | /research-data/coin-profiles/2026-09-26-v1/orderbook-source.json | Sampled current market, may omit this asset |
Verify: CoinNudge frozen spot-path research · Complete monthly observation ledger · Daily historical input ledger · Matched BTC daily input ledger · Frozen CoinGecko supply response · Dated order-book source · Social directory and limitations · ONDO token and distribution — Ondo Foundation · Ondo DAO governance · USDY product eligibility — Ondo Finance
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Frequently asked questions
What is ONDO crypto used for?
ONDO is the governance token associated with Ondo DAO and Flux Finance; it is not itself a tokenized Treasury product such as USDY. This answers the token's documented role, not whether its price is attractive.
Is ONDO worth holding?
There is no unconditional yes in this dated research. A defensible ONDO holding case needs a documented link from growing RWA activity to ONDO tokenholder economics and a plan for potential increases in tradable float. The historical 14 monthly 90-day starts overlap, and 5/14 beat BTC; this is not a future success rate. Check your own horizon, loss limit and live evidence before deciding.
Is ONDO a good coin to buy now?
This report is not a personalized buy call. The latest dated 90-day ONDO path was +64.5% versus BTC +40.5%, but only 5/14 earlier 90-day monthly starts beat BTC and rights, supply and execution still matter.
How has ONDO performed over 7, 30, 90 and 365 days?
The matched Binance spot daily-open returns are 7 days +40.2%; 30 days +43.4%; 90 days +64.5%; 365 days −43.5% through September 25, 2026. These are dated historical windows, not live quotes.
Do ONDO holders receive USDY yield?
The documents reviewed identify ONDO as a DAO/Flux governance token and USDY as a separate yield-bearing instrument. This study did not verify any automatic USDY yield right for ONDO holders.
Does Ondo RWA TVL prove ONDO is undervalued?
No. Product assets, business revenue, governance power and tokenholder distributions are different accounting and legal claims.
Can locked ONDO vote?
The Ondo Foundation says locked ONDO tokens can vote in the DAO; voting rights do not eliminate price or dilution risk.
Can I reproduce this ONDO study?
Yes. The page exposes every 14 matched 90-day start, the daily input CSV, exclusions, version and hashes. The windows overlap, so observed counts are not independent future probabilities.
Does ONDO trading volume guarantee easy execution?
No. The 30-day Binance spot turnover is separate from one sampled order book. At the cited snapshot the returned ±1% book depth was $389,073; later depth and actual fills can differ.
Is ONDO the same investment as USDY?
No. ONDO is documented as DAO/Flux governance; USDY is a separately issued product with its own asset and eligibility terms. Buying ONDO does not grant its yield or backing.
Can ONDO float grow without new token inflation?
Yes. Previously restricted units can become transferable under allocation-specific release terms. That differs from minting new units and does not establish an immediate sale.
What are ONDO tokenomics?
ONDO has an issuer-stated 10 billion initial supply and no planned inflation. Governance is documented, but company equity and automatic product-revenue sharing are not. Investor and contributor releases have different vesting terms; current float must be checked separately.
Sources and verification
- CoinNudge frozen spot-path researchMatched daily-open returns, full cohort and audit hashes.
- Complete monthly observation ledgerEvery eligible 90-day matched start.
- Daily historical input ledgerActual daily inputs with observation and ingestion time.
- Matched BTC daily input ledgerThe same-date BTC opens used in every paired return and drawdown.
- Frozen CoinGecko supply responseProvider-defined current float, total and maximum supply at its own timestamp.
- Dated order-book sourceSampled Binance books for covered markets; not the entire exchange.
- Social directory and limitationsDirectional 7-day X and 30-day Reddit mention counts; bot and promotion filtering unverified.
- ONDO token and distribution — Ondo FoundationPrimary governance, supply and distribution statement.
- Ondo DAO governanceScope and voting process.
- USDY product eligibility — Ondo FinanceDifferent product and investor-rights scope.
- Ondo Foundation ONDO token documentation
Monitor ONDO market changes without treating a dated report as a current order.
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