Live options-maturity pricing context · By CoinNudge Research · Method reviewed 2026-09-12 · Guide updated 2026-09-12 · Live sources · Data observed at · Calculation actual-expiry-atm-iv-curve-1.1 · Auto-refresh about every 900 seconds
Bitcoin and Ethereum options term structure
Current answer: As of , using Deribit public BTC and ETH option summaries: The actual-expiry ATM IV curve is currently upward sloping for BTC from 0.7d to 102.7d (11.31 endpoint vol points) and upward sloping for ETH from 0.7d to 102.7d (19.44 points). Curve shape describes when volatility is priced, not direction.
Live sources
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Current source-backed snapshot
This page maps at-the-money implied volatility across actual listed Deribit BTC and ETH expiries from roughly 12 hours to 120 days. It identifies the nearest and furthest qualifying points and labels the endpoint slope as upward, inverted or approximately flat. The page does not invent constant-maturity contracts: every row preserves its actual expiry, selected strike and option instruments.
Input documentation: Deribit get_instruments · Deribit get_book_summary_by_currency · CoinNudge methodology
Observation window: Actual listed expiries from 12 hours through 120 days
Calculation cadence: Auto-refresh about every 900 seconds
Calculation version: actual-expiry-atm-iv-curve-1.1
Download current dataset: JSON · CSV Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.
| Asset / expiry | Days | Underlying / ATM strike | Call / put IV | ATM IV | Straddle move | Open interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC · 2026-09-14 08:00:00 UTC | 0.7 | $77,103.21 / $77,000.00 | +27.23% / +27.23% | +27.23% | +0.95% | 120.8 / 245.4 |
| BTC · 2026-09-15 08:00:00 UTC | 1.7 | $77,110.49 / $77,000.00 | +31.44% / +31.44% | +31.44% | +1.71% | 53.2 / 30 |
| BTC · 2026-09-16 08:00:00 UTC | 2.7 | $77,126.84 / $77,000.00 | +34.53% / +34.53% | +34.53% | +2.36% | 17 / 25.7 |
| BTC · 2026-09-17 08:00:00 UTC | 3.7 | $77,133.89 / $77,000.00 | +38.99% / +38.99% | +38.99% | +3.13% | 50 / 50.3 |
| BTC · 2026-09-18 08:00:00 UTC | 4.7 | $77,148.08 / $77,000.00 | +39.56% / +39.56% | +39.56% | +3.58% | 239.5 / 695.4 |
| BTC · 2026-09-25 08:00:00 UTC | 11.7 | $77,201.04 / $77,000.00 | +36.72% / +36.72% | +36.72% | +5.24% | 300.8 / 1,083.7 |
| BTC · 2026-10-02 08:00:00 UTC | 18.7 | $77,263.53 / $77,000.00 | +36.50% / +36.50% | +36.50% | +6.58% | 16.2 / 22.1 |
| BTC · 2026-10-30 08:00:00 UTC | 46.7 | $77,533.73 / $78,000.00 | +36.37% / +36.37% | +36.37% | +10.41% | 608.8 / 653.2 |
| BTC · 2026-11-27 08:00:00 UTC | 74.7 | $77,825.10 / $78,000.00 | +38.14% / +38.14% | +38.14% | +13.77% | 109.2 / 151.3 |
| BTC · 2026-12-25 08:00:00 UTC | 102.7 | $78,147.80 / $78,000.00 | +38.54% / +38.54% | +38.54% | +16.27% | 1,042.2 / 1,412 |
| ETH · 2026-09-14 08:00:00 UTC | 0.7 | $2,489.55 / $2,480.00 | +33.68% / +33.68% | +33.68% | +1.20% | 68 / 351 |
| ETH · 2026-09-15 08:00:00 UTC | 1.7 | $2,490.05 / $2,500.00 | +41.65% / +41.65% | +41.65% | +2.28% | 479 / 524 |
| ETH · 2026-09-16 08:00:00 UTC | 2.7 | $2,490.46 / $2,500.00 | +46.79% / +46.79% | +46.79% | +3.22% | 74 / 84 |
| ETH · 2026-09-17 08:00:00 UTC | 3.7 | $2,490.88 / $2,460.00 | +52.37% / +52.37% | +52.37% | +4.29% | 137 / 1 |
| ETH · 2026-09-18 08:00:00 UTC | 4.7 | $2,491.32 / $2,500.00 | +52.06% / +52.06% | +52.06% | +4.72% | 2,736 / 3,795 |
| ETH · 2026-09-25 08:00:00 UTC | 11.7 | $2,493.96 / $2,500.00 | +51.65% / +51.65% | +51.65% | +7.38% | 23,835 / 4,487 |
| ETH · 2026-10-02 08:00:00 UTC | 18.7 | $2,495.26 / $2,500.00 | +50.97% / +50.97% | +50.97% | +9.21% | 113 / 435 |
| ETH · 2026-10-30 08:00:00 UTC | 46.7 | $2,501.76 / $2,500.00 | +51.50% / +51.50% | +51.50% | +14.67% | 2,853 / 557 |
| ETH · 2026-11-27 08:00:00 UTC | 74.7 | $2,508.94 / $2,500.00 | +52.92% / +52.92% | +52.92% | +19.02% | 651 / 494 |
| ETH · 2026-12-25 08:00:00 UTC | 102.7 | $2,516.21 / $2,500.00 | +53.12% / +53.12% | +53.12% | +22.34% | 28,973 / 1,780 |
Current source health
- deribit options: live; last success 2026-09-13 15:35:13 UTC
The curve uses a discrete nearest-ATM matched call-put strike for each actual listed expiry, not a fitted constant-maturity index. Differences can reflect strike grids, smile, mark quality and event timing. Shape does not identify price direction, and 24-hour changes remain blank until genuine forward snapshots accumulate.
How to read this page
- Read days to expiry beside IV; actual maturities are unevenly spaced.
- An inverted curve means near-term ATM IV exceeds the furthest displayed point, not that price must fall.
- Check skew to see whether puts or calls carry the richer wing pricing.
- Prior change remains blank until real versioned snapshots accumulate.
What can this page tell you quickly?
- Best for
- Seeing where BTC and ETH options concentrate near-term versus longer-dated volatility pricing.
- Venue
- Deribit public BTC and ETH option market.
- Structure
- Actual listed expiries and discrete nearest-ATM matched pairs.
- Do not infer
- Curve inversion or steepness identifies future price direction.
What do upward, flat and inverted crypto option curves mean?
An upward curve has higher ATM IV at the furthest displayed expiry than the nearest. An inverted curve has richer near-term IV, often associated with immediate uncertainty or demand, while an approximately flat endpoint slope differs by no more than one volatility point.
These labels describe endpoint pricing only. A middle expiry can contain a hump, so the full row table matters more than one word.
| Shape | Endpoint rule | Possible context | Not implied |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upward | Back IV > front by >1 point | Longer uncertainty priced higher | Price rises |
| Flat | Difference within ±1 point | Similar annualized level | Low risk |
| Inverted | Back IV < front by >1 point | Near-term premium | Price falls |
| Humped | Middle point elevated | Expiry-specific event | One endpoint label is complete |
Why use actual expiries instead of fixed 7-day and 30-day labels?
Listed crypto option maturities change as time passes. Calling the nearest contract a seven-day contract when only three days remain would distort both time scaling and comparisons.
CoinNudge publishes exact expiry and days remaining. Constant-maturity interpolation could be added as a separate model later, but it is not silently mixed into this source-backed table.
| Approach | Advantage | Model risk | Used here |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual expiry | Traceable instrument | Uneven spacing | Yes |
| Nearest named tenor | Simple label | Time remaining drifts | No |
| Interpolated constant maturity | Comparable history | Requires curve model | No |
| Single DVOL index | Broad benchmark | No expiry detail | Separate page |
How does term structure differ from options skew?
Term structure compares ATM volatility across time. Skew compares put and call wing volatility within an expiry. One asks when volatility is priced; the other asks how downside and upside tails differ.
A near-term curve inversion can coexist with call-rich or put-rich skew. Use both before assigning event-risk meaning to one IV number.
| Dimension | Term structure | Skew | Implied move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Axis | Expiry | Strike/delta | Total movement |
| Input | ATM IV | Put minus call IV | Straddle or IV |
| Question | When is volatility rich? | Which tail is rich? | How much move is priced? |
| Direction forecast | No | No | No |
How can the IV curve add context to a crypto alert?
A spot move during a strongly inverted curve occurs while near-term uncertainty is already expensive. The same move during a calm upward curve can represent a larger repricing relative to immediate option expectations.
Option marks update with spot and order flow. Use the timestamp and instrument table, then verify current books before treating the curve as executable.
How do I compare the options curve over time when the nearest expiry changes?
Preserve actual expiries and remaining time. Rolling from an almost-expired contract into a later contract can move the apparent front of the curve even without comparable repricing.
This page uses actual eligible expiries. It does not claim fixed-tenor historical series or a tradable calendar-spread return.
- Save the ATM pair identifiers, expiry timestamps and IV observations.
- Compare matching expiries or use an explicitly disclosed interpolation method.
- Mark expiry rolls and sparse quote periods before describing a curve inversion event.
Verify: Deribit get_instruments · Deribit get_book_summary_by_currency · CoinNudge methodology
What is measured, and what is not?
| Measured claim | Evidence on this page | Boundary |
|---|---|---|
| BTC or ETH has a stated actual-expiry ATM IV curve. | Matched Deribit call-put strikes across listed expiries. | It is not a fitted constant-maturity curve. |
| The endpoint curve is upward, flat or inverted by a disclosed rule. | Back ATM IV minus front ATM IV. | Shape does not forecast direction. |
| Historical change is available only after genuine observations. | Versioned forward snapshots. | No synthetic prior value is created. |
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Method and data boundary
For each expiry, CoinNudge requires an open call and put at the same strike and selects the shared strike closest to the median underlying price. ATM IV is the mean of the selected call and put mark IV. For each asset, endpoint slope equals the furthest qualifying ATM IV minus the nearest qualifying ATM IV in volatility points. More than +1 point is labeled upward sloping, below -1 inverted and the interval approximately flat. Genuine 24-hour changes begin only after forward snapshots exist and are never synthetically backfilled.
This is a discrete actual-expiry curve, not a fitted constant-maturity index or a complete volatility surface. Strike grids, mark quality, smile, event calendars and liquidity can affect adjacent points. Curve shape describes relative volatility pricing across time and does not predict price direction.
Sources and verification
- Deribit get_instrumentsOpen option strikes and expiration timestamps.
- Deribit get_book_summary_by_currencyUnderlying price, bid/ask, mark IV, option mark, volume and OI.
- CoinNudge methodologyATM pair and curve-shape rules.
Frequently asked questions
What is crypto options term structure?
The relationship between annualized implied volatility and option expiry.
What does an inverted curve mean?
The nearest displayed ATM IV is more than one point above the furthest displayed point.
Does inversion predict a price drop?
No. It identifies near-term volatility premium, not direction.
Are these fixed 7d and 30d tenors?
No. Rows preserve actual Deribit expiries and days remaining.
Why can 24h change be blank?
CoinNudge waits for genuine forward snapshots rather than inventing historical values.
Is this the full volatility surface?
No. It is a discrete nearest-ATM curve; skew and wings are covered separately.
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