What happened to Bitcoin after fear and greed readings?

Current source-backed snapshot

A sentiment index is often used as a contrarian slogan, but the useful question is empirical: after a reading was published, what did Bitcoin do over fixed forward windows? This page aligns Alternative.me's daily Fear & Greed observations with Binance BTCUSDT daily closes and groups the next 1-day, 7-day and 30-day reference returns. Incomplete recent horizons remain missing, and the results are descriptive rather than an executable strategy.

Input documentation: Alternative.me Fear & Greed · Binance Spot Klines · CoinNudge methodology

Observation window: Available daily sentiment history

Calculation cadence: Recalculated about hourly; newest source input changes after the UTC daily close

Calculation version: fear-greed-forward-return-study-2.1

Download current dataset: JSON · CSV Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.

Observation evidence

First 30 of 3144 observations. JSON and CSV contain all published evidence. CSV dataset_section distinguishes summary and observation rows.

This is an unconditional descriptive grouping, not a trading strategy. Daily rows and forward windows overlap. Primary intervals resample the full calendar timeline in 30-day circular blocks before filtering each bucket; 7/60-day block sensitivity is published in JSON/CSV. Missing days remain empty calendar positions. With fewer than 20 complete outcomes, fewer than two blocks of calendar history, or any empty replicate, the interval is null. Entry-only results remain sensitivity analysis, not non-overlapping samples.

How to read this page

• How did BTC subsequently move after different Fear & Greed ranges in the available history?
• Serially dependent unconditional groups with no regime controls, fees or execution model; sentiment association is not causation.
• Inspect the table before relying on the summary.
• JSON and CSV preserve the published evidence.

What can this page tell you quickly?

Question answered

How did BTC subsequently move after different Fear & Greed ranges in the available history?

Measured scope

Available daily Alternative.me and BTC close history

Update schedule

Recalculated about every 6 hours from stored source observations.

Do not infer

Serially dependent unconditional groups with no regime controls, fees or execution model; sentiment association is not causation.

Does extreme fear automatically mean buy?

No. Extreme fear describes the index inputs at that time. It can occur near a local bottom, during a continuing decline or in a prolonged high-volatility regime. A contrarian rule needs defined entry timing, exit timing and risk controls.

The table reports forward reference returns and mature sample sizes so users can see whether a popular claim survives even a basic historical check.

How are sentiment and Bitcoin prices aligned?

Each daily sentiment value is paired with the Binance BTCUSDT close for the same UTC date. A forward window is published only when its future close exists; recent 30-day outcomes therefore remain missing by design.

This avoids treating pending outcomes as zero. It also means results describe one spot venue reference and can differ from an execution on another exchange or at another time of day.

Why are these observations not independent trials?

Daily readings cluster: a week of fear creates seven related observations whose forward windows overlap. Treating them as seven independent experiments would understate uncertainty.

A stronger study can sample regime transitions or non-overlapping episodes. The downloadable ledger provides the raw dates needed to build that extension.

How can I verify and cite this result?

Download the page JSON for the complete snapshot and CSV for tabular evidence. Record the API dataset key `fear-greed-forward-returns`, the returned calculation_version, observation interval and named source alongside any quoted number. The visible table rounds values for readability; the downloads retain the published precision.

The stable URL remains unchanged when the data refreshes. A new calculation time does not prove every input changed, so compare source-observed timestamps and the stated available daily alternative.me and btc close history. Missing rows remain missing rather than becoming zero or a favorable estimate.

What is measured, and what is not?

Method and data boundary

Publish the full Alternative.me source count separately from rows aligned to a same-UTC-date Binance BTCUSDT close. Preserve the provider's text classification and also calculate fixed analysis buckets 0–24, 25–44, 45–55, 56–74 and 75–100; do not pretend they are identical. Publish mature N, medians, the all-aligned-day baseline, bucket-minus-baseline, primary 30-calendar-day block-bootstrap intervals with 7/60-day sensitivity and an entry-only sensitivity that keeps the first day after entering each bucket. Resample the full source calendar timeline including missing days before filtering into the bucket and finite 30d outcomes. Seed label is fear-greed|bucket; reset seed for each block-size run. Require 20 complete outcomes, two blocks of calendar history, and all 1,000 draws nonempty; otherwise CI is null. Entry-only sensitivity is still overlapping. Deterministic contract: RNG xorshift32 uses unsigned 32-bit x ^= (x<<13)&0xffffffff; x ^= x>>17; x ^= (x<<5)&0xffffffff. Seed is first four SHA-256 bytes of UTF-8 seed_label, unsigned big-endian; zero initializes as 1. Advance RNG once per block; start=state modulo calendar-day count; circular consecutive days, concatenate and truncate to calendar-day count. Carry state across 1,000 iterations. Median averages the middle two for even N. CI uses sorted estimates and linear interpolation at h=(N-1)*p for p=.025/.975. Numeric seeds are public in JSON/CSV.

Serially dependent unconditional groups with no regime controls, fees or execution model; sentiment association is not causation.

Read the complete CoinNudge methodology

Sources and verification

• Alternative.me Fear & GreedDaily Bitcoin-led sentiment index.
• Binance Spot KlinesBTCUSDT daily close fields.
• CoinNudge methodologyTime and missing-outcome boundaries.

Frequently asked questions

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