Live options-priced movement context · By CoinNudge Research · Method reviewed 2026-09-12 · Guide updated 2026-09-12 · Live sources · Data observed at · Calculation deribit-atm-implied-move-1.1 · Auto-refresh about every 900 seconds
Bitcoin and Ethereum options implied move by expiry
Current answer: As of , using Deribit public BTC and ETH option summaries: The nearest qualifying expiry currently translates to +0.95% for BTC and +1.20% for ETH using matched ATM call-plus-put marks. The separate IV one-sigma ranges remain visible because option premium and a normal-model volatility approximation are not interchangeable or guaranteed closing ranges.
Live sources
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Current source-backed snapshot
This page translates current Deribit at-the-money BTC and ETH options into two different movement ranges for listed expiries from roughly 12 hours to eight days. The straddle-mark range adds the selected call and put marks; the IV range scales at-the-money implied volatility by the square root of time. They answer different questions and neither is presented as a probability guarantee or predicted closing range.
Input documentation: Deribit get_instruments · Deribit get_book_summary_by_currency · CoinNudge methodology
Observation window: Listed expiries from 12 hours through 8 days
Calculation cadence: Auto-refresh about every 900 seconds
Calculation version: deribit-atm-implied-move-1.1
Download current dataset: JSON · CSV Raw values retain the dataset's published precision. Free fair-use limit: 60 requests per minute per IP, shared across all Research JSON and CSV endpoints.
| Asset / expiry | Underlying / ATM strike | Straddle move | Straddle range | ATM IV | IV one-sigma move | IV range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC · 2026-09-14 08:00:00 UTC | $77,103.21 / $77,000.00 | +0.95% | $76,373.98 – $77,832.44 | +27.23% | +1.18% | $76,194.42 – $78,012.00 |
| ETH · 2026-09-14 08:00:00 UTC | $2,489.55 / $2,480.00 | +1.20% | $2,459.65 – $2,519.45 | +33.68% | +1.46% | $2,453.26 – $2,525.84 |
| BTC · 2026-09-15 08:00:00 UTC | $77,110.49 / $77,000.00 | +1.71% | $75,794.84 – $78,426.14 | +31.44% | +2.14% | $75,463.82 – $78,757.16 |
| ETH · 2026-09-15 08:00:00 UTC | $2,490.05 / $2,500.00 | +2.28% | $2,433.18 – $2,546.92 | +41.65% | +2.83% | $2,419.61 – $2,560.49 |
| BTC · 2026-09-16 08:00:00 UTC | $77,126.84 / $77,000.00 | +2.36% | $75,303.38 – $78,950.30 | +34.53% | +2.96% | $74,843.15 – $79,410.53 |
| ETH · 2026-09-16 08:00:00 UTC | $2,490.46 / $2,500.00 | +3.22% | $2,410.22 – $2,570.70 | +46.79% | +4.01% | $2,390.54 – $2,590.38 |
| BTC · 2026-09-17 08:00:00 UTC | $77,133.89 / $77,000.00 | +3.13% | $74,722.79 – $79,544.99 | +38.99% | +3.92% | $74,112.51 – $80,155.27 |
| ETH · 2026-09-17 08:00:00 UTC | $2,490.88 / $2,460.00 | +4.29% | $2,384.07 – $2,597.69 | +52.37% | +5.26% | $2,359.83 – $2,621.93 |
Contract audit trail: instruments, marks, bid/ask and ATM distance
The straddle uses mark values as a reference premium. Bid/ask fields are published so the mark is not presented as an executable cost.
| Asset / expiry | Call instrument | Put instrument | Underlying / strike / distance | Call / put mark (base) | Call bid–ask / put bid–ask |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC · 2026-09-14 08:00:00 UTC | BTC-14SEP26-77000-C | BTC-14SEP26-77000-P | $77,103.21 / $77,000 · -0.13% | 0.00539564 / 0.00406226 | 0.005–0.006 / 0.0038–0.0041 |
| ETH · 2026-09-14 08:00:00 UTC | ETH-14SEP26-2480-C | ETH-14SEP26-2480-P | $2,489.55 / $2,480.0 · -0.38% | 0.007922 / 0.00409 | 0.007–0.0085 / 0.0035–0.0044 |
| BTC · 2026-09-15 08:00:00 UTC | BTC-15SEP26-77000-C | BTC-15SEP26-77000-P | $77,110.49 / $77,000 · -0.14% | 0.00924156 / 0.00782034 | 0.0085–0.01 / 0.007–0.008 |
| ETH · 2026-09-15 08:00:00 UTC | ETH-15SEP26-2500-C | ETH-15SEP26-2500-P | $2,490.05 / $2,500.0 · +0.40% | 0.009418 / 0.013422 | 0.009–0.01 / 0.013–0.0145 |
| BTC · 2026-09-16 08:00:00 UTC | BTC-16SEP26-77000-C | BTC-16SEP26-77000-P | $77,126.84 / $77,000 · -0.16% | 0.01264082 / 0.01100156 | 0.012–0.013 / 0.0105–0.0115 |
| ETH · 2026-09-16 08:00:00 UTC | ETH-16SEP26-2500-C | ETH-16SEP26-2500-P | $2,490.46 / $2,500.0 · +0.38% | 0.014198 / 0.018021 | 0.0135–0.015 / 0.017–0.019 |
| BTC · 2026-09-17 08:00:00 UTC | BTC-17SEP26-77000-C | BTC-17SEP26-77000-P | $77,133.89 / $77,000 · -0.17% | 0.01649317 / 0.01476551 | 0.016–0.017 / 0.0145–0.0155 |
| ETH · 2026-09-17 08:00:00 UTC | ETH-17SEP26-2460-C | ETH-17SEP26-2460-P | $2,490.88 / $2,460.0 · -1.24% | 0.027641 / 0.01524 | 0.026–0.0285 / 0.0145–0.0155 |
Current source health
- deribit options: live; last success 2026-09-13 15:35:13 UTC
The straddle-mark range is a current option-price translation before fees, skew, smile and execution slippage; the IV range is a separate one-standard-deviation approximation. Neither is a probability guarantee or a predicted closing range.
How to read this page
- Use the straddle range as a mark-based reference premium for both directions, not an executable cost.
- Use the IV range as a model-based volatility translation, not the same metric.
- Open the contract audit trail to verify instrument, mark, bid/ask and ATM distance.
- Compare actual expiries rather than assuming a fixed seven-day contract exists.
What can this page tell you quickly?
- Best for
- Seeing how much movement BTC and ETH options currently price into nearby expiries.
- Venue
- Deribit public option summaries.
- Two outputs
- ATM straddle-mark move and ATM-IV one-sigma approximation.
- Do not infer
- The underlying has a guaranteed probability of staying inside either range.
Why are there two implied-move ranges?
The straddle range comes from market option marks: buy one ATM call and one ATM put and add their premiums. It reflects both volatility pricing and contract-specific supply, demand, smile and microstructure. The IV range is a simplified volatility calculation using ATM IV and time.
Because the inputs differ, the percentages can disagree. CoinNudge publishes both instead of quietly naming one as the expected move.
| Range | Formula | Useful for | Main boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Straddle mark | ATM call mark + put mark | Current premium translation | Not executable without bid/ask |
| IV one sigma | ATM IV × √time | Comparable volatility scale | Normal-model approximation |
| Upper level | Spot × (1 + move) | Reference level | Not resistance |
| Lower level | Spot × (1 - move) | Reference level | Not support |
How is the at-the-money option pair selected?
Deribit lists discrete strikes. CoinNudge requires an open call and put at the same strike and chooses the shared strike closest to the median underlying price reported across that expiry's contracts. The exact instrument names remain downloadable.
This avoids mixing a call at one strike with a put at another. It does not remove smile effects or guarantee that the selected marks have deep executable liquidity.
| Gate | Rule | Reason | Residual risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expiry | 12h to 8d | Near-term search intent | Expiry set changes |
| Pair | Call and put share strike | Comparable straddle | Book depth differs |
| Strike | Nearest to underlying | Transparent ATM proxy | Discrete distance remains |
| Input | Positive IV and nonnegative mark | Reject invalid data | Marks can be stale |
How should different expiries be compared?
Longer contracts usually embed more total movement because more time remains, while annualized IV can be higher or lower depending on event risk. Compare move percentage and days to expiry together; a larger total range does not automatically mean a higher annualized volatility quote.
A sharp bump in one expiry can point to scheduled-event pricing or uneven option demand. Confirm it on the term-structure and skew pages before assigning a cause.
| Observation | Possible context | Verify with | Do not conclude |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near expiry move elevated | Immediate event pricing | Term structure and calendar | Direction is known |
| Far expiry move larger | More time remains | Annualized IV | Far expiry is riskier per day |
| Straddle above IV range | Smile or mark effects | Instrument books | Free arbitrage |
| BTC and ETH diverge | Asset-specific demand | Skew and realized volatility | Permanent decoupling |
How can implied move improve spot and perpetual alerts?
A spot breakout near an option-implied boundary carries different context from a small move well inside current option pricing. A liquidation event outside the translated range can also identify unusually large realized movement relative to current option marks.
These are comparison questions, not entry rules. The option market can reprice immediately and the ranges move with spot, time decay and volatility.
Does an implied-move range give the probability that price will finish inside it?
Not by itself. An IV-derived range depends on a volatility model, while an ATM-straddle cost is a different price-based approximation. Neither displayed range should be relabeled as a calibrated success probability.
The range is not a stop-loss recommendation or a guarantee that price remains inside it during the entire period.
- Keep the expiry, remaining time, underlying price and method with the range.
- Compare ranges at the same observation time and distinguish mark from executable bid/ask.
- Test later closes against the original range without replacing it with a newer, wider estimate.
Verify: Deribit get_instruments · Deribit get_book_summary_by_currency · CoinNudge methodology
What is measured, and what is not?
| Measured claim | Evidence on this page | Boundary |
|---|---|---|
| A named BTC or ETH expiry has a stated ATM straddle-mark move. | Matched Deribit call and put at one strike. | Marks are not guaranteed fills. |
| ATM IV translates to a stated time-scaled range. | IV × square root of ACT/365 time. | The normal approximation is not a coverage guarantee. |
| The selected pair is traceable to instrument names and expiry. | Public Deribit definitions and summaries. | No full option-chain execution simulation is claimed. |
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Method and data boundary
For each actual Deribit expiry, CoinNudge finds the strike shared by an open call and put that is closest to the median reported underlying price. Straddle cost equals call mark plus put mark in underlying units and is translated to USD and a percentage of spot. The separate one-standard-deviation approximation equals ATM IV × square root of ACT/365 time to expiry. Lower and upper levels are arithmetic translations around the current underlying, not barrier probabilities.
Option marks can differ from executable bid/ask prices and exclude fees and slippage. ATM selection is discrete, volatility smiles are not flat, crypto returns are not normally distributed and price can leave a range before expiry. The page does not claim a probability of finishing inside either interval.
Sources and verification
- Deribit get_instrumentsOpen BTC and ETH option definitions, strikes and expiries.
- Deribit get_book_summary_by_currencyUnderlying price, bid/ask, mark IV, mark price, volume and open interest.
- CoinNudge methodologyATM pairing, ACT/365 time and missing-data rules.
Frequently asked questions
What is an options implied move?
It is a translation of current option premium or implied volatility into a movement scale through expiry.
Is the straddle range a forecast?
No. It translates current marks and does not predict the closing price.
Why can the two ranges differ?
One uses option marks; the other uses a simplified ATM-IV formula.
Are fees included?
No. Marks, fees, spread, slippage and collateral costs differ.
Which expiries appear?
Actual Deribit BTC and ETH expiries roughly 12 hours to eight days away.
Does an upper level act as resistance?
No. It is a translated movement reference, not a technical level.
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