# Preset protocol: Fear & Greed allocation and Bitcoin all-time-high entry decisions

Version `sentiment-ath-decisions-1.0`, frozen 2026-09-21 before inspecting strategy outcomes.

Both studies use completed Binance BTCUSDT UTC daily spot bars, a USD 10,000 account, zero cash yield and next-UTC-open execution after a close-known signal. Base proportional cost is 0.15% per buy or sell; 0.05% and 0.30% are sensitivities. Tax, financing, guaranteed fills and market impact are excluded. A common terminal open and hypothetical exit cost make account values comparable.

Fear & Greed uses Alternative.me daily source values and fixed numeric buckets: 0–24, 25–44, 45–55, 56–74 and 75–100. Monthly first-observation cohorts run 365, 730 and 1,460 days. Policies are all-in buy-and-hold, twelve equal purchases 30 days apart, an all-cash/all-BTC switch on entries into Extreme Fear/Extreme Greed, and target BTC weights of 100/75/50/25/0 percent by bucket. Report return, positive historical share, excess versus buy-and-hold, drawdown, trades, turnover, exposure and costs. Rolling cohorts overlap.

A Bitcoin ATH signal is a daily close strictly above every earlier Binance BTCUSDT daily close after at least 365 prior complete bars. Main events use a greedy 30-day cooldown; 7- and 60-day cooldowns are sensitivities. Compare next-open immediate purchase, close-confirmed 5/10/20% pullbacks with 30/90/180-day deadlines and mandatory deadline purchase, plus a four-tranche immediate/5/10/20% ladder whose unused cash is deployed after 180 days. Report triggers separately from deadline purchases. Common 365/730/1,460-day endpoints prevent a later entry from receiving a later exit.

All candidates, pending outcomes, missing paths, formulas, code, frozen inputs and hashes are published. Results are retrospective account simulations, not forecasts or personalized trading recommendations.