{ "key": "bitcoin-bottom-confirmation", "calculation_version": "local-bottom-confirmation-1.0", "source": "Binance BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT spot historical 1h candles", "window": "48h new-low candidates after \u22655% drawdown; 12h decision; 72h primary outcome", "observation_start": 1630454400.0, "observation_end": 1790812800, "temporal_start": 1630454400.0, "temporal_end": 1790812800, "refresh_seconds": 86400, "contract": { "version": "local-bottom-confirmation-1.0", "candidate": "hourly low < all preceding48 hourly lows AND (1-close/prior168h highest high)*100 >=5; 200 contiguous preceding hours", "reference": "L=trigger low; A=prior-bar Wilder ATR14; b=.1*A; frozen at t0=trigger close", "spacing_hours": 180, "decision_hours": 12, "horizons_hours": [ 24, 72, 168 ], "primary_hours": 72, "eligibility": "T=t0+12h close>L and no two consecutive closes=L+2A, irrespective of a rebreak; not a successful trade", "waiting": "100*(Tclose/t0close-1) and 100*(Tclose/L-1); neither assumes a fill at the low", "indicators": "Wilder RSI14/ADX14/ATR14, EMA SMA-seeded then recursive; MACD EMA12-EMA26 with EMA9 signal. Historical warm-up month included; invalid inputs stay null.", "rules": { "price_hold": "min lows hours7..12 > min lows hours1..6, and min lows hours1..6 >= L-b; two-block proxy, not pivot-confirmed double bottom", "rsi_repair": "RSI14(T)>RSI14(t0) and RSI14(T)>30; not necessarily crossing30 from below", "macd_repair": "MACD12/26/9 histogram(T)>histogram(t0), including still-negative values", "divergence": "close(t0)RSI at that prior closing low; earliest tie; not pivot divergence", "volume": "mean quote turnover hours1..12 >=1.5 * mean quote turnover preceding24h", "buy_flow": "sum valid taker-buy quote / sum quote hours1..12 >=.55; all12 flow inputs valid or null", "ema_reclaim": "close(T)>EMA21(T)", "vwap_reclaim": "close(T)>sum(qv)/sum(v) in complete UTC day of T-bar open through T; invalid session -> null", "adx_easing": "ADX14(T)=20 and>=1900 finite draws; linear2.5/97.5 percentiles", "seed": "first4 SHA256 bytes big-endian of version|symbol|period|test|14, zero ->1; xorshift32 unsigned shifts13,17,5; start=state%calendar_days", "time_split": "development before2025-09-01; retrospective validation2025-09-01..2026-09-15; forward>=2026-09-16; full180h path cannot cross period; publication day excluded from validation/forward", "incremental": "price_macd vs price_hold alone within price_hold=true; macd_volume vs macd alone within macd_repair=true; triple vs price_macd alone within price_macd=true", "strata": "Separate full-period marginal strata for distance [0,1),[1,2),[2,4),[4,inf) priorATR; pre-drawdown [5,10),[10,20),[20,inf)%; priorATR/close<1% or>=1%; prior7d return negative or nonnegative. Not joint matching or causal adjustment; no stratum intervals.", "provenance": "Reconstructed Binance spot history, not originally captured PIT alerts. Internal protocol fixed before this experiment, not externally preregistered. Multiple correlated comparisons, no adjusted significance, no executable profitability claim.", "combination_extension": { "version": "bottom-combinations-exploratory-1.0", "declared_at": "2026-09-15", "selection": "Post-hoc extension chosen after inspecting original single-indicator results. Not part of the original predefined thirteen tests, not independent validation.", "rules": [ [ "ema_only", [], [ "ema_reclaim" ] ], [ "easing_only", [], [ "adx_easing" ] ], [ "ema_easing", [], [ "ema_reclaim", "adx_easing" ] ], [ "ema_easing_low", [], [ "ema_reclaim", "adx_easing", "price_hold" ] ], [ "ema_easing_vwap", [], [ "ema_reclaim", "adx_easing", "vwap_reclaim" ] ], [ "ema_easing_macd", [], [ "ema_reclaim", "adx_easing", "macd_repair" ] ], [ "ema_easing_volume", [], [ "ema_reclaim", "adx_easing", "volume" ] ], [ "add_easing_to_ema", [ "ema_reclaim" ], [ "adx_easing" ] ], [ "add_ema_to_easing", [ "adx_easing" ], [ "ema_reclaim" ] ], [ "add_low_to_pair", [ "ema_reclaim", "adx_easing" ], [ "price_hold" ] ] ], "population": "Same eligible complete180h pool and period boundaries as original items. base_conditions must all be true; added_conditions use three-valued AND. Null excluded, never counted absent.", "outcome": "held_h_n counts rebreak_h is false; held_h_pct=100*held_h_n/N, h=72 or168. Not a profitable trade or cycle-bottom probability.", "inference": "Descriptive only; no confidence interval or multiplicity-adjusted significance claim. Publish all seven inspected selections and all three conditional comparisons, including null and small groups." } }, "items": [ { "method": "price_hold", "label": "Two-block higher-low proxy", "pool_n": 75, "unavailable_n": 0, "difference_ci_low": -48.15527065527066, "difference_ci_high": -5.594412561772674, "bootstrap_valid": 2000, "status": "exploratory", "yes_n": 33, "yes_wait_median_pct": 1.3233696173285958, "yes_low_distance_median_pct": 2.4596255814925527, "yes_failures_24h": 5, "yes_failure_24h_pct": 15.151515151515152, "yes_return_24h_median_pct": -0.20979520417090392, "yes_mfe_24h_median_pct": 1.0850788278024215, "yes_mae_24h_median_pct": -1.9767396690106298, "yes_rebound_24h_n": 31, "yes_failures_72h": 13, "yes_failure_72h_pct": 39.39393939393939, "yes_return_72h_median_pct": 0.27943329273480977, "yes_mfe_72h_median_pct": 2.565228157744426, "yes_mae_72h_median_pct": -3.0168668222638195, "yes_rebound_72h_n": 31, "yes_failures_168h": 16, "yes_failure_168h_pct": 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-27.272727272727266, "symbol": "BTCUSDT", "period": "full", "bootstrap_seed": 3272015160, "calendar_start": 1630454400.0, "calendar_end": 1790812800, "calculation_version": "local-bottom-confirmation-1.0" }, { "method": "rsi_repair", "label": "RSI rises and recovers above 30", "pool_n": 75, "unavailable_n": 0, "difference_ci_low": null, "difference_ci_high": null, "bootstrap_valid": 0, "status": "exploratory", "yes_n": 73, "yes_wait_median_pct": 1.1658984713618148, "yes_low_distance_median_pct": 1.7916988654162358, "yes_failures_24h": 17, "yes_failure_24h_pct": 23.28767123287671, "yes_return_24h_median_pct": -0.030427351692086102, "yes_mfe_24h_median_pct": 1.1447681458935266, "yes_mae_24h_median_pct": -1.4651475261388325, "yes_rebound_24h_n": 61, "yes_failures_72h": 40, "yes_failure_72h_pct": 54.794520547945204, "yes_return_72h_median_pct": -0.306415776208524, "yes_mfe_72h_median_pct": 2.298490571832046, "yes_mae_72h_median_pct": -3.0168668222638195, "yes_rebound_72h_n": 66, 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"without_return_72h_median_pct": 3.8357998282912087, "without_held_168h_n": 2, "without_held_168h_pct": 66.66666666666666, "without_return_168h_median_pct": -0.7428892769408391, "symbol": "ETHUSDT", "period": "validation", "calendar_start": 1756684800.0, "calendar_end": 1789430400.0 } ], "summary": { "answer": "Watch the combination of price above EMA21, easing ADX and negative DI, and a higher low\u2014not momentum recovery alone. In this exploratory BTC study, the first two conditions had a 72-hour held-low rate of 83.3% (15/18); adding a higher low gave 100.0% (10/10), versus 60.0% (9/15) for ETH under the same three conditions. BTC's three-condition rate over seven days was 90.0% (9/10). These are small, retrospectively selected samples, not future bottom-confirmation probabilities. Conditions are measured after a twelve-hour wait; held means no two later hourly closes below the fixed low minus 0.1 prior ATR. The combination warrants further study, not a validated buy signal." }, "market_count": 13, "release_id": "20261001-672f85f8663a", "input_sha256": "fc8403b654f8f8518122c75be9d729375edb39be5164f855a353b38d1e0d20ac", "source_code_sha256": "c4909c2bdd14b5dbbc82cb27dd79b4d8980168d6c6322318f6c3ff199923136f", "inputs_url": "/api/research/live/bitcoin-bottom-confirmation/inputs/20261001-672f85f8663a.csv", "updated": 1790813647.0007675, "generated_at": 1790813647.0007675, "calculated_at": 1790813647.0007675 }