{
  "version": "altcoin-80-drawdown-extension-1.0",
  "source_input": "/research-data/four-decisions/2026-09-20-v2/spot.json.gz",
  "source_input_sha256": "dff7dd7afeefb6c104241bc382b57e0e5849e14ffa0692f8f6d96ea4e4a2f605",
  "source_market_count": 746,
  "status_counts": {
    "complete": 2022,
    "pending": 64,
    "excluded_cooldown": 4356,
    "missing_path": 188
  },
  "costs": [
    0.0005,
    0.0015,
    0.003
  ],
  "summary": [
    {
      "days": 30,
      "n": 703,
      "symbols": 390,
      "btc_beats_hold_n": 407,
      "btc_beats_hold_pct": 57.89473684210526,
      "median_paired_gap_pct": 3.1615472145542944,
      "median_hold_return_pct": -3.077198697068384,
      "median_rotate_return_pct": -0.016991388386877748,
      "median_cash_return_pct": -0.15,
      "median_hold_drawdown_pct": -26.44889357218124,
      "median_rotate_drawdown_pct": -9.47563128504062,
      "recovered_prior_peak_n": 0
    },
    {
      "days": 90,
      "n": 680,
      "symbols": 384,
      "btc_beats_hold_n": 359,
      "btc_beats_hold_pct": 52.794117647058826,
      "median_paired_gap_pct": 3.230762364057221,
      "median_hold_return_pct": -1.8606212709323056,
      "median_rotate_return_pct": -8.16576829457415,
      "median_cash_return_pct": -0.15,
      "median_hold_drawdown_pct": -43.25677994363416,
      "median_rotate_drawdown_pct": -24.46678542700944,
      "recovered_prior_peak_n": 2
    },
    {
      "days": 180,
      "n": 639,
      "symbols": 365,
      "btc_beats_hold_n": 420,
      "btc_beats_hold_pct": 65.72769953051643,
      "median_paired_gap_pct": 13.994927010795221,
      "median_hold_return_pct": -18.25467032967033,
      "median_rotate_return_pct": -11.796276891180424,
      "median_cash_return_pct": -0.15,
      "median_hold_drawdown_pct": -54.58404074702887,
      "median_rotate_drawdown_pct": -32.02251526449772,
      "recovered_prior_peak_n": 4
    }
  ],
  "limitations": [
    "80% threshold is a dated post-original extension, not the first release protocol.",
    "Trigger is from prior 180-day closing high, not the investor purchase price.",
    "Missing exit paths are not zero and may bias complete cases.",
    "Overlapping events and correlated symbols are not independent trials.",
    "Retrospective historical spot data do not prove live fills or a rebound detector."
  ]
}