{
  "edition": "ai-trading-vs-bitcoin-1.0",
  "generated_at": "2026-09-20T07:17:51.142202Z",
  "source_observed_at": "2026-09-20T01:00:04.336Z",
  "license": "Derived from TradeRank.ai data under CC BY 4.0; attribution and original URL retained.",
  "sources": [
    {
      "name": "TradeRank public facts",
      "url": "https://www.traderank.ai/data/traderank-facts.json",
      "sha256": "d375bc0adc410f8508fc0a84994b29e24f12ba671780c7a1c2f67014c287155a"
    },
    {
      "name": "TradeRank benchmark methodology",
      "url": "https://www.traderank.ai/how-it-works"
    },
    {
      "name": "Obside Jev 24-hour experiment",
      "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/ObsideAI/comments/1wkpsxs/i_let_jev_ai_trade_every_30_seconds_for_more_than/",
      "status": "self-reported, not independently reconciled"
    }
  ],
  "scope": {
    "season": {
      "seasonSlug": "season-9",
      "seasonName": "Season 9: Top 16 Showdown",
      "status": "active",
      "startDate": "2026-09-12",
      "endDate": "2026-10-10",
      "cycleIntervalHours": 24
    },
    "paper_trading": true,
    "starting_capital_per_model_usd": 10000,
    "decision_cycle_hours": 24,
    "mixed_crypto_and_us_equity_universe": true,
    "btc_is_non_tradeable_reference": true,
    "important_non_comparability": "BTC baseline begins 2026-09-13 while the season begins 2026-09-12; Jev joined 2026-09-18. Current rankings are provisional and not a common-start Jev test."
  },
  "summary": {
    "model_count": 17,
    "profitable_models_at_snapshot": 11,
    "models_beating_btc_at_snapshot": 2,
    "btc_return_pct": 5.195,
    "leader": "Mistral Medium 3.5",
    "leader_return_pct": 5.6318,
    "leader_excess_vs_btc_pp": 0.43679999999999986,
    "completed_seasons": 9,
    "all_time_model_seasons": 91,
    "all_time_profitable_model_seasons": 42,
    "all_time_profitable_model_season_pct": 46.2,
    "all_time_trades": 2826
  },
  "current_standings": [
    {
      "rank": 1,
      "model_id": "mistral",
      "model_name": "Mistral Medium 3.5",
      "provider": "Mistral AI",
      "return_pct": 5.6318,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": 0.43679999999999986,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": true,
      "reported_trades": 0,
      "reported_sharpe": 10.036,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 1.0927,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 2,
      "model_id": "nvidia",
      "model_name": "Nemotron 3.5 Lightning",
      "provider": "NVIDIA",
      "return_pct": 5.464,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": 0.26900000000000013,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": true,
      "reported_trades": 1,
      "reported_sharpe": 4.8025,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 4.9234,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 3,
      "model_id": "alibaba",
      "model_name": "Qwen3.8 Max 0902",
      "provider": "Alibaba",
      "return_pct": 4.8512,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -0.3437999999999999,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 0,
      "reported_sharpe": 5.8753,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 3.3985,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 4,
      "model_id": "thinkingmachines",
      "model_name": "Inkling",
      "provider": "Thinking Machines",
      "return_pct": 4.4281,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -0.7669000000000006,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 0,
      "reported_sharpe": 6.0244,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 3.2798,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 5,
      "model_id": "stealth",
      "model_name": "Nightjar",
      "provider": "Stealth",
      "return_pct": 2.1603,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -3.0347000000000004,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 0,
      "reported_sharpe": 3.6268,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 3.709,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 6,
      "model_id": "meta",
      "model_name": "Muse Spark 1.3",
      "provider": "Meta",
      "return_pct": 1.2013,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -3.9937000000000005,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 0,
      "reported_sharpe": 2.8494,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 3.0227,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 7,
      "model_id": "meituan",
      "model_name": "LongCat 2.0",
      "provider": "Meituan",
      "return_pct": 1.0014,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -4.1936,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 1,
      "reported_sharpe": 2.4832,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 2.3559,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 8,
      "model_id": "xai",
      "model_name": "Grok 4.6",
      "provider": "xAI",
      "return_pct": 0.8214,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -4.373600000000001,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 0,
      "reported_sharpe": 10.3898,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 0.03,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 9,
      "model_id": "zhipu",
      "model_name": "GLM-5.3",
      "provider": "Zhipu AI",
      "return_pct": 0.6965,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -4.4985,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 1,
      "reported_sharpe": 2.499,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 2.3467,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 10,
      "model_id": "anthropic",
      "model_name": "Claude Fable 5.1",
      "provider": "Anthropic",
      "return_pct": 0.5331,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -4.6619,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 0,
      "reported_sharpe": 1.9516,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 1.9244,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 11,
      "model_id": "moonshot",
      "model_name": "Kimi K3",
      "provider": "Moonshot",
      "return_pct": 0.3227,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -4.8723,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 0,
      "reported_sharpe": 1.4883,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 2.2789,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 12,
      "model_id": "jev",
      "model_name": "Jev",
      "provider": "TypeSafe",
      "return_pct": 0.0,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -5.195,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 0,
      "reported_sharpe": 0.0,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 0.0,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 13,
      "model_id": "openai",
      "model_name": "GPT-6 Astra",
      "provider": "OpenAI",
      "return_pct": -0.403,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -5.598000000000001,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 1,
      "reported_sharpe": -7.5868,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 0.6175,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 14,
      "model_id": "minimax",
      "model_name": "MiniMax M3",
      "provider": "MiniMax",
      "return_pct": -1.0044,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -6.199400000000001,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 1,
      "reported_sharpe": -3.6737,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 1.3811,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 15,
      "model_id": "bytedance",
      "model_name": "Seed 2.1 Turbo",
      "provider": "ByteDance",
      "return_pct": -1.0272,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -6.2222,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 2,
      "reported_sharpe": -0.9228,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 4.648,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 16,
      "model_id": "google",
      "model_name": "Gemini 3.8 Flash",
      "provider": "Google",
      "return_pct": -1.7558,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -6.9508,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 1,
      "reported_sharpe": -8.6125,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 1.9153,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    },
    {
      "rank": 17,
      "model_id": "deepseek",
      "model_name": "DeepSeek V4.1 Flash",
      "provider": "DeepSeek",
      "return_pct": -5.5377,
      "excess_vs_btc_pp": -10.732700000000001,
      "beats_btc_at_snapshot": false,
      "reported_trades": 3,
      "reported_sharpe": -13.232,
      "reported_max_drawdown_pct": 5.4858,
      "reported_win_rate_pct": 0.0
    }
  ],
  "jev_high_frequency_case": {
    "evidence_type": "author self-report; CoinNudge did not receive the complete execution ledger",
    "source_url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/ObsideAI/comments/1wkpsxs/i_let_jev_ai_trade_every_30_seconds_for_more_than/",
    "observed_date": "2026-09-20",
    "starting_simulated_capital_usd": 100000,
    "reported_trades": 731,
    "reported_total_loss_usd": 3150,
    "reported_fee_cost_usd": 1650,
    "reported_profitable_trade_pct_after_fees": 21,
    "loss_before_reported_fees_usd": 1500,
    "reported_fee_share_of_total_loss_pct": 52.38095238095239,
    "reported_average_fee_cost_per_trade_usd": 2.2571819425444595
  },
  "calculation_contract": {
    "excess_vs_btc_pp": "model_return_pct - published_btc_return_pct",
    "beats_btc": "strictly greater than the published BTC reference using unrounded source values",
    "profitable": "model return is strictly greater than zero",
    "fee_share_of_total_loss_pct": "reported fee cost / reported total loss * 100",
    "important_boundary": "No missing fee, trade or return field is imputed. Reported metrics remain source-reported; CoinNudge does not relabel them as broker-reconciled fills."
  }
}