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%"],["median_mae_pct","Median MAE %"],["matched_control_median_return_pct","Matched-control median %"],["event_minus_control_median_pct","Event minus control pp"],["event_minus_control_ci_low","Difference 95% low"],["event_minus_control_ci_high","Difference 95% high"]],"summary":{"answer":"Actual archive coverage at this calculation: BTCUSDT 2184 hourly bars (~91.0 days); ETHUSDT 2184 hourly bars (~91.0 days); SOLUSDT 1032 hourly bars (~43.0 days); BNBUSDT 1032 hourly bars (~43.0 days); XRPUSDT 1032 hourly bars (~43.0 days); DOGEUSDT 1032 hourly bars (~43.0 days). 305 spaced reconstructed events and 67 non-overlapping matched controls across 6 fixed spot pairs. Outcome estimates are withheld below 20 complete events. Controls match symbol and UTC hour-of-week, then minimize prior volatility, local trend and BTC-regime distance; controls whose 24h windows overlap any same-symbol event window are excluded."},"market_count":12,"bootstrap_method":"deterministic circular moving-block bootstrap of the median","block_size":3,"resamples":1000,"seed":"Per-row event_bootstrap_seed and difference_bootstrap_seed; uint32 from first four SHA-256 bytes of the published label","rng":"xorshift32: x ^= x<<13; x ^= x>>17; x ^= x<<5, masked to uint32 after each left-shift stage; block start = state mod sample count","quantile_interpolation":"linear at zero-based position (resamples - 1) × q for q=0.025 and 0.975","matching_exact_fields":["symbol","hour_of_week"],"distance_formula":"sum(weight[field] × abs(event[field] - control[field]) / normalization[field]); missing component uses missing_component_penalty","normalization":{"prior_24h_return_pct":5.0,"prior_24h_volatility_pct":2.0,"btc_prior_24h_return_pct":5.0},"weights":{"prior_24h_return_pct":1.0,"prior_24h_volatility_pct":1.0,"btc_prior_24h_return_pct":1.0},"missing_component_penalty":10.0,"caliper":null,"with_replacement":false,"event_processing_order":"symbol ascending, then event_time ascending","tie_break_rule":"lowest distance, then smallest absolute event/control time gap, then earliest control event_time","control_exclusion_scope":"exclude a candidate when its [start,end) 24h outcome overlaps any [start,end) event outcome for the same symbol","matching_candidates_url":"/api/research/live/rsi-outcomes/matching-candidates","matching_candidate_count":6291,"matching_candidate_ids_sha256":"fdebc4931c0b84747c6631a4a3c1a1390a3c85e8be0bb2d16bbad70a4c3c91d4","coverage_items":[{"symbol":"BTCUSDT","first_time":1781395200.0,"last_time":1789257600.0,"available_bars":2184,"expected_bars":2184,"missing_bars":0},{"symbol":"ETHUSDT","first_time":1781395200.0,"last_time":1789257600.0,"available_bars":2184,"expected_bars":2184,"missing_bars":0},{"symbol":"SOLUSDT","first_time":1785542400.0,"last_time":1789257600.0,"available_bars":1032,"expected_bars":2184,"missing_bars":1152},{"symbol":"BNBUSDT","first_time":1785542400.0,"last_time":1789257600.0,"available_bars":1032,"expected_bars":2184,"missing_bars":1152},{"symbol":"XRPUSDT","first_time":1785542400.0,"last_time":1789257600.0,"available_bars":1032,"expected_bars":2184,"missing_bars":1152},{"symbol":"DOGEUSDT","first_time":1785542400.0,"last_time":1789257600.0,"available_bars":1032,"expected_bars":2184,"missing_bars":1152}],"requested_start":1781395200,"requested_end":1789257600}